The US and Israel conducted airstrikes in Iran on Saturday, triggering a major conflict in the Middle East, a day after negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities fell apart in Geneva.
Washington has been pressing Tehran to abandon its enrichment programme, a longstanding cause of concern for Israel and a major point of contention with the West. The Islamic regime has said it would never do that.
The strikes mark the beginning of a larger regional conflict with multiple stakeholders poised to become involved.
The region has witnessed a historic level of US military buildup since last month. The US has deployed the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, scores of naval ships and military aircraft, including F-35 multirole stealth fighters.
The Ford Carrier Strike Group, the US’s most advanced aircraft carrier group, is also headed towards the theatre from the Mediterranean.
How prepared is Iran?
Iran is a formidable force in the Middle East, notwithstanding its technological and air defence disadvantages compared with the US and Israel.
Its arsenal already hosts a wide array of ballistic missiles—with ranges of up to 2,000 km—and the Shahed drones, a series of economical ‘suicide drones’ with similar ranges. This places a majority of US bases in the region within striking distance.
The Shahed-131 and the larger Shahed-136 were tried and tested in the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report published in 2024, there are eight persistent bases and 11 other military sites that the US Department of War (formerly Department of Defense) manages or operates in the Middle East.
In addition to this, Tehran is close to finalising a deal with China to purchase supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. The CM-302 missiles, which have a range of about 290 kilometres and fly low to avoid defences, would bolster Iran’s missile capability significantly.
Alongside its traditional armed forces (with approximately 600,000 personnel), Iran also has the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—which has around 200,000 active personnel, a naval force, an intelligence network, a special forces unit, and a paramilitary volunteer militia.
Proxies aligned with the Islamic Republic—like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, collectively referred to as the ‘axis of resistance’—could also join the conflict, although their capabilities have been degraded in their fight with Israel.
Precision strikes may not be the answer
Unlike Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was swiftly captured 30 km from the Caribbean coast earlier this year and replaced by a more cooperative figure for Washington, targeting the Iranian leadership in a similar manner would be a radically different task. Tehran lies 640 kilometres from the Persian Gulf.
If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were removed or killed in precision strikes, he would be replaced by hardliners in an establishment that has crystallised for nearly five decades. And the Ayatollah has already named four layers of succession for military and government roles, according to an NYT report.
According to another NYT report, Ali Larijani, the country’s top national security official and a former IRGC commander, has emerged as the Supreme Leader’s most trusted adviser and has been effectively running the country.
In January, Khamenei turned to Larijani to lead the brutal crackdown on protestors when met with the largest anti-regime uprising since the Islamic Republic’s founding.
US President Donald Trump called on the Iranian public to “seize control of your destiny,” urging it to overthrow the regime. But taking out the Iranian leadership may not be as straightforward, and it could invite wider consequences for the Middle East, akin to a full-blown war.
A destabilised Iran would also undermine regional stability. Iraq has kept groups like ISIS at bay with the help of Iran-backed Shia militias like the Kata’ib Hezbollah.
The wider consequences: a deterrence
A conflict could cause global oil and gas prices to skyrocket owing to the theatre’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz—a major chokepoint through which a fifth of global energy shipments pass.
Although India has not imported significant amounts of crude oil from Iran due to US sanctions in place since 2019, other major trading partners in the region like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), could be impacted.
Following the joint operation, Islamic Republic launched counterattacks on Washington’s regional allies – UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar – all of which house US military bases. And all commercial flights have been grounded.
Iran may not possess an ‘Iron Dome’ like Israel, but it could pursue a strategy of causing wider damage to Washington’s assets and allies in the region. This may be its only deterrence.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (File Photo) 
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