US-Iran two-week ceasefire: How Trump stepped back from brink, and what comes next

While some strikes in the affected regions are being reported, here are the key takeaways from the two-week “double-sided” ceasefire, as Trump described it.

1. Trump walks back from the ledge

First, the US President’s brinkmanship was on full display in front of the whole world, as he made announcements laden with threats and expletives.

Trump, who began the war along with Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu by launching strikes on February 28, has been trying to walk back from the ledge since March 23. At that time, he had announced a five-day pause on hitting Iran’s power plants, which he extended to a 10-day pause ending on April 6, and finally set a deadline of 8 pm, April 7.

The US President’s much-awaited post on Truth Social said that he has agreed to “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran” for a period of two weeks, as Iran has agreed to “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

He will see this reopening as a major win, especially since his allies in Europe had refused to send any naval or military assets to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A meeting called by the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had been able to build a consensus on “immediate and unconditional reopening” of the Strait and respect for the “fundamental principles of freedom of navigation and the law of the sea”, but had refused to intervene militarily.

In the hours since, Trump has talked of “working with Iran” and that “Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds…”, which signals positive momentum.

2. Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz

“War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography”. This quote, attributed to Mark Twain and cited recently by the comedian Jon Stewart, rings truer than ever now.

While the US does not import oil from the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s effective closure of the narrow maritime passageway had sent oil prices spiralling for the world — including the US.

Indeed, the Strait of Hormuz — which accounts for a fifth of the world’s energy flows during peace time — was Iran’s strongest weapon during the war and a major part of its escalation strategy under which it widened the conflict to energy and economic infrastructure of the Gulf Arab countries.

All this helped Iran maintain its strategic leverage even as its military industrial complex, steel plants in Isfahan, industries in Bushehr, the bridges connecting these industries and ballistic missile capabilities came under heavy attack. This was in addition to the bombing of its nuclear facilities.

Iran allowed some ships to squeeze through the Strait in lieu of a toll — around $2 million per vessel — according to major shipping intelligence firm Lloyd’s List. Within diplomatic circles, this system was often referred to as the “Ayatoll booth”. It also said it was allowing the passage of vessels of countries seen as neutral or on its side. India and China were among the countries which benefited from Tehran’s strategy.

Iran’s National Security Council said in its statement that the forthcoming negotiations with the US were under the supervision and with the approval of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. The statement warned that if negotiations fail, Iran would not hesitate to resume hostilities.

Araghchi, Tehran’s public face, posted on X: “In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

His key point was that the US has accepted the Iranian proposal and that Tehran is reopening the Strait for the time being. This two-week window will give Iran some space to negotiate.

3. Iran’s maximalist peace terms

Iran says it has “forced” the US to accept its “10-point plan” which includes the following terms:

1. Commitment to non-aggression
2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Paying compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon

Trump says this plan is “a workable basis”. 

“We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated,” the US President has said, in his Truth Social post.

It will be the ultimate test of diplomatic skills to get through all these maximalist demands from Tehran. It is also important to note that the Iranian regime had been consistent in these demands, as sanctions relief and commitment to non-aggression had been two major demands by the Iranian negotiators as they had negotiated with US’s Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, before February 28.

4. Pakistan raises its profile

The role of Pakistan in the ceasefire has been acknowledged by both sides.

US President Trump said: “Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran,”, and gave the proposal to pause for two weeks.

And the Iranian Foreign minister Araghchi wrote, “On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.”

This puts Pakistan’s profile as a regional and global peacemaker on the map, and raises its role as a credible mediator.

Pakistan has played the role many times in the past — between US and China in the 1970s, between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2010s, between US and Taliban in 2020s, but this has been qualitatively different and at a much more impactful role.

Now, Islamabad would want this to be their accord and Pakistan has offered to now host the talks, and that was clear in Pakistan PM Sharif’s post where he said, “With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.”

 “I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes… We earnestly hope, that the ‘Islamabad Talks’ succeed in achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in coming days!”

Pakistan’s Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is reported to have spoken to both Vice President J D Vance, Witkoff and Kushner on one side, and Araghchi and others on the other side, to come up with the plan.

Now, Islamabad would want this to be their accord. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, in multiple posts on X, has referred to negotiations as the “Islamabad Talks”. Positioning himself as the prime mover of the peace talks, Sharif has also reacted to the violence being reported.

“Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process. I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict,” he posted on X in the evening.

Some reports also suggest China played some role in the negotiations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and political allies like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) had urged Trump to reject any proposal unless Iran made major concessions.

Members of Trump’s team, including Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff, have advised him to take a deal if they could get one, according to Axios.

5. Relief for the region…

The impact on the region has been brutal in the last 39 days.

The death toll in the war since February 28 was climbing as it had crossed more than 3,000 so far in the last five-and-half weeks — at least 1,665 killed in Iran, 1,500 killed in Lebanon, 32 killed in the Gulf countries, 20 in Israel, American death toll has been at 13 military personnel.

Iran’s counter-attacks on the regional partners which hosted the American bases and facilities and military personnel have shattered the notice of peace that existed in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman among others.

The daily barrage of missiles and drones that targeted their energy and economic infrastructure, desalination plants, energy and oil installations, US companies offices and warehouses, hotels and airports — have cast a shadow over peace in the Middle East.

Iran, which has been battered by the US and Israeli strikes, wanted to impose costs on the adversaries, and that escalatory approach was their key strategy.

The US military had taken a hit with losses of a few military aircraft and choppers, and at least 13 military personnel dead.

The two-week reprieve will be a key moment in the negotiations where the Gulf monarchies would want the peace to be durable, so that the economic costs can be reduced.

6. …and for India

India has been impacted due to the energy crisis that has gripped the economy. The shortage in supply of the oil and gas from the Gulf — India depends on these economies for 60% of its energy needs — has threatened to derail economic growth, pushing it towards a slowdown.

The ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait will be a major relief for New Delhi, as it has been able to get only about eight ships in the last 39 days since the war began.

While there will be some heartburn in Delhi as Pakistan has stolen the spotlight and has emerged as a peacemaker — External Affairs minister S Jaishankar had referred to them as “dalal” (broker) in his statement at the all-party meeting — but the fact that it has led to a two-week reprieve and a potential pathway towards a truce should be a major development to be welcomed. 

On Wednesday, India, in its first official statement, “welcomed the ceasefire” and expressed hope that it will lead to a “lasting peace”. The Ministry of External Affairs did not mention Pakistan in its statement, whose role has been acknowledged by both the US and Iran.

The war had also taken a toll on Indian lives, as eight Indians have been killed in the last five-and-half weeks, including three seafarers.  While more than 7 lakh Indians had been able to use the flights to come home, including about 1,800 from Iran, the concern in Delhi for the safety of Indians in the Gulf was very high. After all, there are about one crore Indians in the region, and they account for almost 40% of remittances sent to India.

The scale and magnitude of disruption due to any protracted conflict would have been a huge toll and a worry for India. The Indian statement said: “The conflict has already caused immense suffering to people and disrupted global energy supply and trade networks.”

The statement also talked about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. “We expect that unimpeded freedom of navigation and global flow of commerce would prevail through the Strait of Hormuz,” it said.