UK elections: Historic result for Labour, but no voteshare gains

Yet, data show that the election’s outcome is more a result of an anti-Conservative vote than a Labour groundswell. Compared to 2019, Labour’s voteshare, at 33.9%, has gone up by a modest 1.7% points, with most of this gain coming from Scotland. The Tories, on the other hand, have seen their voteshare collapse by almost 20% points, to 23.7%.

The 2024 elections have also seen the lowest turnout in 20 years, possibly the lowest ever, at a touch below 60%. This means that effectively, Labour’s 33.9% voteshare roughly translates to support from one in five people in the electorate.

In fact, Labour has won 9,712,011 total votes this time, compared to 10,269,051 in 2019, when Labour suffered a historic defeat. As the Financial Times put it: “No British political party has ever won such a big majority with so few votes”.

Analysts point out that one major reason behind this result is the performance of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, which has managed to win four seats in Tory strongholds, including Farage himself winning from Clacton. More importantly, it has secured a voteshare of 14.3%, eating mostly into the Conservative vote. Many of Labour’s gains in the Tory heartland have come where the Labour candidate’s margin of victory is lower than the number of votes polled for Reform.

Labour has taken a step back in urban England

While Labour has undoubtedly made inroads into erstwhile Conservative strongholds, and seen a revival in Scotland, it has also seen major losses in many of its inner city strongholds in England.

This was not unexpected. Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, spoke to The Guardian in May after local election results threw up a similar trend. “The Labour strategy was to do better in more rural areas, more Tory areas, whiter areas. They have done better across the board in all those areas… There has been a substantial loss of support in heavily Muslim areas and they are going backwards a bit in progressive areas and areas with students. It is progress at a price,” he said.

Under Keir Starmer, Labour has been dragged to the centre of the political spectrum. Starmer’s courting of business interests, his lack of clarity on public welfare, and pro-Israel position amidst the ongoing conflict in Palestine, have alienated poor, Black, Muslim, and student voters — traditional Labour banks.

Among the ‘safe seats’ lost is Islington North. Labour had held the London constituency since 1937 (there was a brief hiatus from 1981-83), with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn being the MP since 1983. Corbyn won again, but this time as an Independent, defeating Labour’s Praful Nargund despite Labour mounting a loud and expensive campaign. Corbyn was expelled from the party by Starmer, who has effectively sidelined Labour’s left-wing.

Starmer’s unimpressive performance

Newly-elected Prime Minister Starmer’s own performance has been far from impressive.

His constituency Holborn and St Pancras saw a boundary change this time, so a direct comparison with the 2019 elections is not possible. But based on modelling by the Press Association, his 48.9% voteshare translates to a 17.3% points drop from the previous poll. There was also a fall in turnout to 54.6%, down 10.5% points from 2019.

Pro-Palestinian activist Andrew Feinstein came in second place. Running as an independent, Feinstein was able to eat into Starmer’s vote, bringing his lead down significantly from 22,766 in 2019 to 11,572 this time around.

In his victory speech, Starmer said that “change begins now”. He will have to deliver on this promise or risk getting wiped out five years later. After all, Labour’s position with the British people is far more precarious than what its number of seats indicate.