Trump pauses Project Freedom: What this means for US-GCC alliance, Strait of Hormuz

These dizzying shifts come as the US and Iran negotiate a lasting end to the war amid a fragile ceasefire in West Asia. One of the sticking points is the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which has choked a significant chunk of the world’s energy supply.

The Gulf backlash to the escort mission, however, reflects the larger churn in the region that has only deepened with every week of the war, started by the US and Israel on February 28. Here’s what this says about the divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and in the grouping’s relationship with the US.

First, why did Trump pause Project Freedom?

According to the NBC report, Trump’s Project Freedom announcement on social media surprised his Gulf allies, especially angering Saudi Arabia.

The Kingdom, in response, restricted the US military’s ability to use the Prince Sultan Airbase as well as airspace to carry out the operation. A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, NBC reported.

Kuwait, too, reportedly denied Washington access to its bases and airspace for the proposed mission.

Without Saudi and Kuwaiti airspace, US aircraft were unable to protect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The report said that other close Gulf allies were also caught off guard — the US reportedly spoke with Qatar and Oman only after Trump had made the announcement.

The regional partners reportedly opposed the plan over fears that it could escalate tensions amid shaky peace talks and a fragile ceasefire.

The churn within the Gulf

Trump’s abrupt announcement and pause reflect a pattern that has been seen since the beginning of the war. He has frequently not consulted his Gulf allies before making decisions or has acted contrary to their advice.

But the crucial difference here is that Project Freedom was announced after the UAE quit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), splitting the Gulf in the middle, pointed out Bashir Ali Abbas, Senior Research Associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, New Delhi.

Significantly, the UAE appeared aligned with the plan. And, seemingly in response, Iran attacked the UAE’s major oil industry zone in Fujairah.

Abbas told The Indian Express: “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been able to export far more oil from its Western ports than UAE has been able to through its Fujairah pipeline. The UAE’s exit from OPEC came with the linked assumption that it would increase production and leverage its spare capacity. But for that to truly be achieved, Hormuz has to be opened. So it cannot be assumed that the UAE, at least, was not on board Project Freedom, given this need.”

What does this mean for the region’s ties with the US?

Iran’s response to the US-Israeli war has affected Gulf countries to varying degrees. The worst hit, perhaps, has been the UAE.

Their responses to the war — and, in particular, to the Project Freedom episode — have also varied accordingly.

The war initially brought together the two rival power players in the region, the Saudi Crown Prince MBS and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, just weeks after their tensions over Yemen reached a boiling point.

But the UAE’s exit from OPEC has, once and for all, ended any perception of the GCC as a monolith, especially in terms of their relationship with the US.

“Each GCC state is taking different lessons from this. Given the NBC report, it’s clear that Saudi Arabia has drawn a line. Kuwait, which faced the third-highest strikes after the UAE and Israel, also refused,” said Abbas.

“But here, the UAE’s bet on the US continues (along with Israel). Unlike other GCC states, the UAE’s lesson is likely to further entrench its partnership with Washington and Tel Aviv,” he said.

So what could this US-Gulf relationship look like after the war?

According to Abbas, a possible trajectory could be that Arab countries that are aligned with Saudi Arabia could entrench their relationships with Turkey, China and Pakistan.

But this is also not something that needs to happen alongside something as drastic as snapping relations with the US — “that’s likely not happening overnight”, said Abbas.