Sheikh Hasina’s return to the spotlight: What this means for India-Bangladesh ties

The timing

Hasina, who fled Bangladesh on August 5, 2024, amid raging protests, has been living in India in an undisclosed location for the last two years. She had addressed the media at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia in January through an audio-recorded message, but had not taken questions. That message was played out a month before the national elections in Bangladesh.

This time, Hasina took questions, and was also joined online by her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, who was an advisor in her government and lives in the US.

The tone and the statement

Hasina’s statement was emotional and rhetorical, with her voice choking as she spoke from a prepared text. In the statement that lasted about 23 minutes, she highlighted the violent political unrest in Bangladesh, the destruction of public and private properties, the killing of police officers, and the targeting of the media.

She emphasized the economic decline, with GDP growth falling to 2.2% from 6.8%, and called for international support to restore democracy and justice in Bangladesh.

She declared, “Whatever fate awaits me, I will return to my people. I cannot stay away while my beloved countrymen are suffering.”

The former PM has been sentenced to death over the killing of protesters in July-August 2024, and also faces a number of corruption cases.

Asked when she plans to return, Hasina referred to the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war and said, “December is our victory month, so I want to go back in the month of December.”

Her statement is aimed at shoring up support in favour of her party, the banned Awami League, against the incumbent BNP government.

The BNP government is facing economic challenges amid oil and gas price pressures due to the war in West Asia. Hasina hopes to make a political comeback before the next elections in Bangladesh.

Former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina addresses a press conference in New Delhi on Wednesday (August 5) via audio link. Praveen Khanna

However, her dodging the question of apologies and regret for the killings of protesters in July-August 2024 has been a sore point for many in Bangladesh.

Asked whether his mother had any regret for the killing of students and protesters, Joy said, “Look, this question of regret and apologies has been raised, but you see the Yunus regime and the BNP regime has continued… They have legalised killings — the killings of police officers, the killings of civilians, the killings of Awami League members… And you have heard my mother express that this was a violent situation. So, if one set of killings is legal, then how does the question of apology arise? Why does it arise?”

Hasina’s statements were barred from being broadcast in Bangladesh’s mainstream media, using the same draconian laws that the Hasina government had used against current Prime Minister Tarique Rahman 17 years ago.

New Delhi and the BNP govt

Hasina in her statement directly targeted the BNP government, with which India has tried to cultivate ties.

Rahman had also signalled a positive relationship with India in his pronouncements. But there have since been challenges — Delhi views illegal immigration from Bangladesh as a major irritant, and the BJP-led West Bengal government has upped the ante on this.

The fact that Rahman has visited China but not India yet signals some tension.

Amid the outstanding bilateral issues, the Ganga Water Treaty of 1996 is due for renewal this year. The Teesta water treaty is still to be signed. While Bangladesh has removed visa curbs on Indians, some trade restrictions remain.

In such a complicated bilateral situation, Hasina’s statements targeting the BNP government are certain to create acrimony. “Dhaka deeply regrets that in spite of concerns conveyed apriori to the Government of India about the likely ramifications of this event on the reset of our bilateral relations, this public event was permitted to be held,” its foreign ministry said on August 5.

Indeed, it is learnt that New Delhi allowing a platform for the former PM has had a negative impact in Dhaka.

BNP leaders feel that this only reinforces the belief that India is pro-Awami League, and is unable to reconcile to the new political realities. Many in Dhaka view this as a misstep at a time when the Rahman government was trying to repair ties. This also puts the possible visit by Rahman for the BRICS summit in September in jeopardy. And India will have to work hard to assuage the suspicion this episode might have instilled in the minds of Bangladesh’s decision-makers.

For Delhi, a robust and healthy bilateral relationship with Dhaka is essential, especially since it needs Dhaka to access its north-eastern states easily. A peaceful and stable Bangladesh, where anti-India statements and activities are kept in-check is important for Delhi’s internal security.

Bangladesh too needs India, since it is surrounded by the large neighbour from three sides. The Hasina episode highlights New Delhi’s tough balancing act to deal with a tricky bilateral relationship.

India’s tightrope

In 2024, India gave Hasina refuge instantly, even when other doors were closed to her. She has lived here since. On how the Indian government had been treating her, Joy said she is being treated like a Head of State, with full services and security.

While the Ministry of External Affairs has clarified, for the record, that it was not involved in Hasina’s press interaction, the event can be seen as New Delhi creating leverage by using the former PM — her statements and her silences — to gain some diplomatic quid pro quo in negotiations on trade, water, economy, politics, security, and a range of tricky areas with Bangladesh.

The fact that India has kept her in safe custody with full security is similar to how New Delhi has treated the Dalai Lama — much to China’s annoyance. He is allowed to conduct spiritual activities and not political activities, but the Tibetan leader has the ability to fuse the two with finesse.