Why Russia is bringing in a law banning ‘propaganda’ about not having children

What is the law?

According to Russian state news agency TASS, the law would target information “promoting voluntary childlessness online, through the media, movies and advertisements.” Vyacheslav Volodin, Speaker of the lower house, said, “It is important to protect people, primarily the younger generation, from having the ideology of childlessness imposed on them”. However, he added that the law would not impact women who decide not to have children.

On September 17, the first reading of the law proposed strong sanctions on anyone spreading “propaganda” against having children. Individuals could be fined up to 400,000 rubles ($4,100) for spreading propaganda. Additionally, it would target foreign nationals “who promote the child-free movement” through fines of up to 100,000 rubles ($1,000) and they could even risk deportation.

The State Duma or the lower house of parliament approved the third of three required readings of the proposed legislation. It will now be reviewed in the upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, and be ratified by Putin.

What explains the push towards “traditional values”?

The law against child-free propaganda is part of a larger push by the Russian government against “destructive ideologies” the Kremlin claims are imported from the West. TASS described it as “in line with the punishment for promoting non-traditional sexual relations and gender reassignment.”

According to The Washington Post, these ideas are also linked to the policies of Putin, who has increasingly consolidated power in Russia since 2000. “His policies are being driven not only by economic interests but by his effort to forge a puritanical, militarized society built on nationalism and Orthodox Christianity — locked in a civilizational conflict with the West,” it said.

So far, the Russian government has identified feminists, LGBTQ+ activists and independent journalists as foreign agents, extremists or terrorists who have been thrown in jail or forced to flee the country. Access to abortion is being increasingly curtailed, while Russian ministers have reportedly appealed to women to start families at the age of 18 instead of seeking higher education.

Putin has said on multiple occasions that Russia’s demographic crisis “haunts” him and has referred to it as a critical national security problem in the backdrop of Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Russia’s looming demographic crisis

Citing official data, Reuters reported that in the first half of 2024, the number of children born in Russia was 599,600 — the lowest figure since 1999. In June, the country recorded a 6% drop in the number of live births at 98,600, the first time the number fell below 100,000.

Russia’s population decline accelerated by 18% this year, recording 325,100 deaths in the first six months. This was 49,000 more than the same period last year and attributed to the frontline casualties in the Ukraine war.

Effectively, the declining birth rate and increasing death rate will result in a shrinking, ageing population. The most obvious impact has been on the labour market. Russia’s military and civilian industries are competing for the same shrinking labour pool, leading to lower productivity and economic output.

In 2023, Russian Labour Minister Anton Kotyakov noted that the labour shortfall was acutely felt in the manufacturing, construction and transport sectors, according to a report in Russia’s Izvestia newspaper. According to the IMF, if present demographic trends continue, the economy could decline by about 0.5% annually.

However, many other developed nations such as China, Japan, South Korea and Italy have faced the same problem of low birth rates of late. Some issues are country-specific, like China’s mandatory One Child Policy (from 1980 to 2016). In Russia’s case, an Atlantic Council report cited the “increasingly limited immigration and continuing brain drain” as important factors.

In general, birth rates fall as countries improve the delivery of basic services and women get educated and can make decisions about their lives. If the cost of living increases, as is in many regions with increasing modernisation and urbanisation, child-rearing also becomes expensive.

Nina Ostanina, who heads the Duma’s Committee for the Protection of Families, told the state news agency RIA in September that a “special demographic operation” is needed to improve the birth rate.