Expert Explains | What Russia’s growing dependence on China means for India’s security

History of Russia-China relations

Historically, Russia-China relations can be understood in three phases: the imperial period, the Soviet period and the post-Soviet period. Russia and China have interacted as civilisational states for centuries. They share a long border of roughly 4,300 km, and their relationship has largely been tranquil.

However, there were periods of episodic conflicts and hostility. For instance, Chinese literature often refers to the 19th century as a “period of humiliation” in which European powers, including Russia, forced China to sign unfair treaties. China had ceded some territories to Russia following the treaties of Aigun (1858), Peking (1860), and Tarbagatai (1864), which China now claims was done under duress.

The establishment of the Communist regime in China in 1949 enabled strong cooperation with the Soviet Union, and the two countries signed the famous Treaty of Friendship in 1950. However, the ideological affinity was short-lived, and soon the differences emerged over the correct interpretation of socialist ideology, regional geopolitics and global influence. Then Chinese President Mao Zedong resented Russian leader Joseph Stalin’s policy of “socialism in one country” (which proposed that the Soviet Union could achieve socialism by itself if allowed to exist in peace by hostile countries) and Soviet support for the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang), a rival of the Mao-led Communist Party of China.

Further, Beijing viewed Russian Premier Nikita Khrushchev’s de-Stalinisation programme as a betrayal of the socialist movement. China also expected the Soviet Union to provide nuclear technology, which the latter refused. These developments led to the famous Sino-Soviet schism of the 1960s, culminating in armed clashes in 1969.

Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong and US President Richard Nixon shake hands as they meet in Beijing on February 21, 1972. Photo: AP/File

The Sino-Soviet schism provided the US with an opportunity to realign its policy toward China. Then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s famous “ping-pong diplomacy” (referring to a series of friendly table tennis matches between Chinese and American players in 1971, seen as a symbolic gesture of goodwill between the two countries) thawed Cold War ties and paved the way for US President Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to Beijing. Washington-Beijing-Islamabad forged close ties during this period, jeopardising India’s continental security and destabilising regional geopolitics. Now, President Trump seems to be pursuing a similar policy of establishing close ties with Pakistan and China.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, China’s Jiang Zemin and Russia’s Boris Yeltsin signed the Strategic Partnership Treaty in 1992. However, the credit goes to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping who added new dynamism to Russia-China relations. They declared a “no-limits” partnership in 2022, just before the onset of Russia’s war with Ukraine. 

Political and economic cooperation

Russia and China have deep economic and political ties and complement each other in several respects. President Putin and Xi Jinping have met more than 40 times. In fact, Putin has visited China more than 20 times, while Xi has visited Russia 11 times.

China is the leading player in commerce, technology and finance, while Russia thrives on its energy and defence exports. Russia needs market, technology and capital, while China needs energy and defence products. Following Western sanctions, Russia has become heavily dependent on China. The Russian economy would have collapsed without China’s support from 2022. Russia’s total trade value was about $700 billion in 2025, of which about $228 billion (or 32 per cent) was only with China. Russia’s main exports are crude oil, coal, natural gas, copper, timber, and agricultural products, and its imports are cars, computers, tractors, phones, machinery, electronics, and vehicles.

For key technologies, Russia now depends heavily on China. Chinese automobile, telecom and electronic companies have captured a high share of the Russian market following the withdrawal of Western companies. Russian technology firms rely heavily on semiconductor and industrial electronics from China. They are also collaborating in aerospace, satellite navigation, advanced materials and industrial artificial intelligence.

The Power of Siberia 1 gas pipeline (a 3,000-kilometre cross-border pipeline that transports natural gas from  Eastern Siberia directly to Heilongjiang province in northeastern China) reached full operational capacity in 2025, and they are working on the 2,600-km Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal to China through Mongolia. Before the Ukraine war, Russia’s gas supply was mainly to European states, but after the sanctions, it has gone mainly to China.

An interesting aspect of cooperation is that the trade between the two countries takes place in local currencies of yuan and ruble. Thus, reflecting the accelerating de-dollarisation of bilateral trade.

Outcomes of Putin-Xi summit

The Putin-Xi Summit on Wednesday is considered more productive than the Trump-Xi meeting a week ago because it issued a joint statement and signed more than 40 agreements encompassing energy, technology, investment, transport, space, digital and cultural cooperation. There was no concrete agreement on the Siberia-2 gas pipeline.

Essentially, they seek to develop robust bilateral ties immune from global volatility and Western pressure. Without naming the US, they criticised its unilateral and hegemonic policies, and pledged to work for a “multipolar” world order and democratisation of global institutions. In short, the summit reinforced their determination to deepen strategic cooperation to preserve their interests and counterbalance the Western hegemony.

Are they headed towards a military alliance?

Russia and China are not natural allies in terms of common culture, ideology, political regime or racial affinity. However, the emerging geopolitics, in which both Russia and China view Washington as a structural rival, has brought them closer. In the lexicon of international politics, an alliance is a formal agreement in which two states commit to supporting each other against external aggression.

There is a growing concern that Beijing and Moscow are headed towards a military alliance. However, in the shifting sands of global geopolitics, military alliances can be a liability and come with twin fears of “entrapment” and “abandonment”.

A state fears being dragged into unwanted conflict and abandoned during a crisis. China does not want to get entangled in Russia’s conflict with the West. Similarly, Russia does not want to get embroiled in China’s conflict with the US over Taiwan. Therefore, while their cooperation would intensify, they are unlikely to forge a formal military alliance in the near future. In fact, Trump’s visit to Beijing has precluded such a possibility in the short term, if it existed at all.

Implications for India

Russia’s growing cooperation and dependence on China has serious ramifications for India’s security. For the last two decades, New Delhi has pursued a twin strategy to maintain balance: cultivating a security partnership with the US and by maintaining strong ties with Russia.

These diplomatic options, however, are dwindling as both Trump and Putin are trying to woo Xi Jinping. New Delhi will have to work on alternative strategies as it can no longer rely on the US for its continental security and balance. At least, not while Trump is in office.

The author is professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi.