Imran Khan’s arrest: Boost for his image, but key is how Army responds

Former Pakistan PM Imran Khan was taken into custody by the Rangers on Tuesday from outside the Islamabad High Court. (Source: Twitter/ @PTIofficial)

But even if the Army has shot itself in the foot, it is unlikely that such protests will lead to a change of mind at the top. Having taken this step, it would be surprising if Army chief General Asim Munir backs down against his adversary.

The 70-year-old cricketer-turned-politician has locked horns with the Pakistan Army since last year — with then COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa for withdrawing backing for his government and refusing to ensure he did not lose the opposition no-confidence motion in April 2022, bringing his prime ministerial term to an abrupt end; and with his successor Munir, who had been eased out as ISI chief by Bajwa on Khan’s say so, for putting some of his close family members under watch.

Rangers abducted PTI Chairman Imran Khan, these are the visuals. Pakistan’s brave people must come out and defend their country. pic.twitter.com/hJwG42hsE4

— PTI (@PTIofficial) May 9, 2023

Khan’s arrest was foretold. As his popularity soared since his ouster from office, disqualification via conviction was the only way to keep him out of the election – he has been booked reportedly in 140 cases ranging from murder to profiting from the sale of state gifts. The Shehbaz Sharif-led government, formed by a coalition of parties called the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) after Khan’s ouster, and the Army are united in this effort.

The PDM fears an election rout at Khan’s hands. And if Khan is elected, Gen Munir, whose appointment as chief came through after the government put off his retirement date, would be the first casualty. While there appears to be some discord within the Army over Munir’s appointment and divisions over Khan, many at the top view him as a direct threat to its predominant position in Pakistan.

Smoke erupts from objects set on fire by angry supporters of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan as police fire tear gas to disperse them during a protest against the arrest of Khan, in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, May 9, 2023. (AP Photo)

How long the protests last, and how the Army deals with them will play a decisive role in what happens next. So far, there has been no use of force. The mob in Lahore was not prevented from entering the Army home, which appeared to be unoccupied. In another visual on Twitter, crowds shaking the gates at one of the entrances to GHQ were allowed to enter freely. The Army may be hoping that after the anger subsides, people will return home.

Also, as of Tuesday evening, no leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf was at the forefront in any of the protests. Many of the prominent PTI leaders, champions on Twitter, have been quiet. The number two of the party, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, exhorted all PTI supporters to take to the streets for their leader’s release. “This is not the time to sit at home,” he said in a short video clip posted on Twitter and elsewhere. As the authorities shut down Twitter and other social media, he put out another message saying that protests should continue until Khan was released.

But without visible leadership, the danger is that if the protests continue, they could spiral out of control. The Pakistan Army would be loath to take extreme steps against protestors, especially in Punjab, the province which identifies most closely with it, even if it could use the civilian government as a front. But, if required, deploying the paramilitary Rangers, as seen in the arrest today, could be one way for the Army to use force without being identified with it directly. The curtailment of mobile internet services had triggered fears of the use of force.

Supporters of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan block an entry gate of the Pakistani army’s headquarters in Rawalpindi. (AP/PTI Photo)

The latest crisis has also brought back talk of martial law, though the Army would hardly want to take the drastic step when the country is reeling under an economic crisis, and the prospect of default is high. Martial law would also make it more difficult than it is right now to get IMF help.

The PTI is nothing without Khan. For now, the party is to be led by a committee appointed by Khan ahead of his much anticipated arrest. Should Khan be convicted and disqualified, Qureshi, who is the most established leader in the party, may lead it into the next election, whenever that is held, canvassing votes on behalf of the jailed leader. As a veteran politician, tried and tested as a Foreign Minister in the Zardari government, he may be more acceptable to the establishment.

The question then is where does all this leave Nawaz Sharif, the command and control centre of the Shehbaz Sharif government. He made his peace with the Army in the hope of returning to Pakistan and perhaps even to office soon. But that’s looking tougher by the day.