Pakistan’s two-front crisis: Caught between Afghanistan and Iran wars, what are Islamabad’s options?

Also, both conflicts can worsen Pakistan’s internal security situation — the Balochistan insurgency could get a boost from the Iran war, while the terrorist group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) can retaliate for Afghanistan. Already, more than 20 people have been killed in protests against the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revered by Shias across Pakistan.

What is at stake for Pakistan in Iran, and what does it hope to achieve in Afghanistan? Does the churn offer Pakistan a silver lining?

In Iran, much at risk for Islamabad

Pakistan has been walking a tightrope on the Iran war, stretching ever tauter. It can’t risk its newfound bonhomie with Donald Trump, but its relationship with Iran is too valuable to consign to battleground flames. Thus, Islamabad condemned the first attack on Iran, but did not name the attacker. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei for succeeding his father and condoled the Ayotallah’s death, while also expressing solidarity with the Gulf countries Iran has attacked.

Shia Muslims at a demonstration to condemn the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and against the Israeli strikes on Iran, in Lahore, Pakistan, Sunday, March 8. (AP)

Among all these countries, the most important for Islamabad is Saudi Arabia, its longtime benefactor from whom more loans are needed soon. In September last year, the two countries signed a pact that said aggression against either would be treated as aggression against both. Last week, Pakistan’s Field Marshal, Asim Munir, went to Riyadh to meet the Saudi defence minister. In a statement released after this meeting, Pakistan army’s media wing hoped that “brotherly country Iran would manifest prudence and sagacity”, sidestepping any direct condemnation.

Eleven years ago, Pakistan had refused the Saudi request to join a military coalition in Yemen. It was not bound by a formal defence deal then. Today, if the war worsens for Saudi Arabia, the world will be watching how Pakistan honours its pact

With Iran, Pakistan’s ties are complex. The Shia-Sunni divide is one factor, Pakistan’s attempts to stay in the US’s good books is another. Both share a 900-km border, on either side of which — Balochistan in Pakistan, Sistan and Baluchestan in Iran — a Baloch insurgency is simmering. The two have occasionally collaborated against the insurgency, but it has also been a flashpoint. In 2024, Iran struck inside Pakistan’s borders and Pakistan hit back, both claiming to target militant hideouts. Since then, there had been some movement to improve ties.

But a defeated or weakened Iran is not in Islamabad’s interest. If Iran cannot police its border, Baloch militants will be emboldened. Islamabad also wouldn’t want an Israel-approved puppet leadership next door. Also, Balochistan depends heavily on trade and supplies from across the Iran border, while millions of Pakistanis working in Iran and the Gulf countries send home remittances. Every day of the war has economic costs for Pakistan beyond just fuel prices.

Add to this the fact that almost all the countries that could have mediated in its war with Afghanistan are now too busy with a war of their own.

However, while it is in a tight spot, Pakistan is still the country that can talk to all parties in this conflict. Ali K Chishti, a defence and security expert from Pakistan, claimed, “Pakistan does face a policy cul-de-sac over the Iran issue. However, Pakistan has used this opportunity to leverage its ties with Iran proactively, because of which Iran has not targeted Saudi Arabia as viciously as other countries. So that’s a win for Pakistan.”

If Islamabad manages to de-escalate the Gulf situation, it will a big boost to its diplomatic profile.

Domestically, while the State likes warm ties with Washington, America is unpopular among much of the population. Could going to Saudi Arabia’s aid in a war started by the US and Israel, soon after the Gaza massacre, ignite tensions?

Asad ur Rehman, assistant professor at Karachi’s Habib University, said the State might have a face-saver. “The anti-US sentiment in Pakistan is mostly an outcome of two separate yet not mutually exclusive factors — the pan-Islamism that gained popular support since the 1970s further buttressed after 9/11; and the perceived betrayal by the USA in supporting Pakistan against India. But if Pakistan is forced into war on behalf of Saudi Arabia, I think there is some leverage, as it can be presented as an effort to safeguard the holy places [Mecca and Medina, both in Saudi Arabia].”

Pakistan’s clash with Afghanistan

The bone of contention here is the TTP, also called the Pakistan Taliban. The TTP originally had an Islamic jihad-based narrative, where it wanted Pakistan run as an emirate following a strict interpretation of the Quran. But increasingly, it has co-opted many long-standing local grievances of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Pashtun population. The TTP is lethal, responsible for thousands of deaths in terror attacks in the past few years alone.

Once the Taliban came back to power in Kabul in 2021, Pakistan had hoped it would rein in the TTP, which often operates from across the Afghanistan border. However, the opposite has happened. After numerous attempts to crack down on the TTP failed, Pakistan on February 27 started a bombing campaign in Afghanistan, with the other side retaliating.

“Out of sheer frustration, Pakistan has decided to up the ante with Afghanistan. However, this may go nowhere. Afghanistan is adept in non-conventional warfare, and has enormous capacity to take punishment. The conflict could be prolonged,” TCA Raghavan, India’s former High Commissioner to Pakistan, said.

Continuing violence between Pakistan and Afghanistan hurts China, which has made enormous investments in the former and is eyeing the mineral wealth of the latter. Pakistan can ill-afford to displease Beijing. The war is costing money other areas desperately need, and can further inflame passions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

There is also the fact that local militants in Pakistan happen to have more combat experience than many national militaries. Several TTP members have fought in the Afghanistan wars, and use sophisticated weapons left behind by NATO. The Zainabiyoun Brigade, a Pakistani Shia group backed by Iran, has fought ISIS in Syria.

Kabul has so far shown no sign of backing down. Why then is Pakistan continuing with the costly war? Chishti said, “Pakistan has a two-pronged policy in this campaign. First is to create a buffer zone within Afghanistan’s borders around the areas where the TTP operates, since the Taliban government is unable to control the TTP. Second is to raise the costs for the Taliban regime, as part of a punitive deterrence policy. Also, an added objective is to destroy leftover US weapons, so as to deplete the Afghan Taliban’s capacity.”