Is China pivoting away from ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’?

“China’s approach is still very much wolf-warrior diplomacy,” said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “I don’t see any substantial change, except Qin Gang will play the role of the soft-spoken one while Wang Yi will take a tough stance.”

Qin, who has long been viewed as a trusted aide to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, wrote in a piece published by The Washington Post on January 4 that the development of China-US relations will remain an important mission in his new position.

“I leave the United States more convinced that the door to China-US relations will remain open and cannot be closed,” he wrote, adding that relations shouldn’t be a zero-sum game and that the world is “wide enough for China and the United States to both develop and prosper.”

A ‘more tactful’ diplomacy?

Despite the optimism expressed by Qin, tensions between China and the US remain high. Since former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August, China has increased its military activities around the island. The US, meanwhile, is also seeking to strengthen security and military ties with countries like Japan and the Philippines.

According to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University (ANU), Qin Gang is seen in some foreign policy circles as someone who is a wolf warrior but a much more tactful one.

“He speaks the language that will be endearing to the western audience, but at the same time, he is not afraid of showing teeth as we’ve seen in some of his past speeches. [His appointment] is Beijing trying to rebalance the earlier era of wolf warrior diplomacy,” he told DW.

For Sari Arho Havren, a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki specializing in China’s foreign relations, “It is a tactical move to buy time.”

“…China needs to strengthen its economy and break out from the relative isolation the zero-COVID policies have put it in,” Havrén told DW.

Qin ‘easy to work with’ for Western diplomats

Over the last three years, China has largely isolated itself from the rest of the world, as its top officials, including Xi, were consistently absent from major international events. However, since last September, Beijing has re-emerged on the international stage, with Xi going on several important trips to Central Asia and the Middle East and conducting one-on-one meetings with several world leaders during the G20 Summit last November.

Havren, from the University of Helsinki, told DW even though European countries have begun to understand the importance of diversifying their dependencies, especially on China, she is not confident that these countries understand what China is trying to achieve through its charm offensive.

“Beijing is buying time to stabilize the situation at home while strengthening itself for the ongoing rivalry with the United States and its allies,” she said.

“For them, it would be ideal if major European countries would keep or even deepen their dependencies on China and thus make them less likely to stand by the US in the time of potential conflict,” she added.

Sung from ANU said given Qin Gang’s relatively young age, he could be eligible to serve three terms as China’s foreign minister, which would make his tenure longer than his predecessors. “He is likely going to be here for the long haul and it will provide greater stability and predictability in China’s diplomacy going forward,” he told DW.

“For western countries, that will probably be a good thing, since China’s wolf warrior diplomats have been rather unpredictable over the last few years. It’s never truly easy to predict which target China is going to strike next. Qin is someone that western diplomats find it easy to work with,” he added.

What will be the focus of China’s foreign policy in 2023?

As China tries to recalibrate its foreign policy approach under Xi’s third term, Sung from ANU thinks the personnel reshuffling seems to suggest that western European countries, Australia and Canada are going to be the major focus of Beijing’s foreign policy efforts in the coming years.

“One thing to note is the elevation of western Europe expertise in China’s foreign ministry following the 20th Party Congress last October,” he told DW.

“Five central committee members have foreign affairs portfolios and three of them have prior experiences serving either as the deputy foreign minister responsible for European affairs or have served as senior diplomats in the Chinese embassy in the UK. What this suggests is that China will make Western Europe and by extension, some western countries the major focus of their diplomatic engagement in the coming years,” he added.

And even though China and the US are trying to restart bilateral dialogue, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Beijing next month, some analysts say they don’t think China and the US are going to make any fundamental changes to their positions on key foreign policy issues.

“What we are seeing right now is both Washington and Beijing recognizing that while they are in competition, they also don’t want uncontrollable escalation and want to avoid accidents as best as they can,” said Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore. “However, I don’t think when it comes to the international system, the rules-based order, the position of Taiwan, there is not much shift on either side.”

According to Chong, Xi is still going to defend China’s interests and that recent reshuffles in personnel “is more of a tactical adjustment so China can move ahead without so much pushback.”