Iran ceasefire: How the US and Iran can break their deadlock, end the conflict

Iran’s nuclear programme

The US wants Iran to give up its right to nuclear enrichment. Tehran does not want to relinquish that right, viewing it as central to its sovereignty and national pride.

Washington also wants Tehran to hand over its enriched nuclear material. Iran, however, is unwilling to give up its 60% enriched uranium — estimated at about 440 kg — which can be further enriched to 90%, enough to make 10 nuclear weapons.

The US has proposed that Iran halt enrichment for 20 years, according to media reports, while Tehran has indicated a cap of up to five years. With both sides staking out maximalist positions, a 10-year pause could be a middle ground.

As for the 440 kg of nuclear material, the US President has already offered an opening, saying it lies under rubble — calling it “nuclear dust”. This could pave the way for a solution where Tehran commits not to move or use the uranium within heavily fortified facilities at Isfahan and Natanz.

Sanctions relief

Iran is seeking relief from sanctions and the release of its frozen assets (estimated at $100 billion) in the US, Europe and the Gulf, including Qatar. The US, meanwhile, wants proof that Tehran is serious about capping its nuclear programme.

The crushing western sanctions have devastated Iran’s economy. One of the primary catalysts behind the country’s massive protests in January was the plummeting value of the domestic currency.

While some let up in the sanctions is key for Tehran to revive its economy, Washington is likely to link any easing of sanctions to its behaviour, using it as leverage.

The Strait of Hormuz

Iran has found that its most significant lever in the war is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, about 150 vessels passed through the Strait each day; now, that number has dropped to roughly 150 vessels over seven weeks of war. The economic consequences have affected nearly every country in the world.

Reopening the Strait is, therefore, critical. Iran also stands to lose revenue the longer it remains closed. US blockades have aimed to squeeze Iran financially, though Chinese vessels have so far been given a free pass, creating a loophole.

If both sides reach an agreement on the nuclear programme and sanctions relief, Iran could reopen the Strait — with the US, China and Gulf states acting as security guarantors — to prevent future disruptions.

A more hardline regime

The Iranian regime has become more hardline following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with key figures such as Ali Shamkhani, Ali Larijani and the senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership.

The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, along with the key national security official Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, are seen as hardliners. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is viewed as a pragmatic manager. Many of them share roots in the Iran-Iraq war.

The remaining moderates include President Masoud Pezeshkian, and former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami. Though weakened over the past seven weeks, they remain experienced political operators and potential interlocutors.

The US could open channels of communication with these actors to assess how different factions within Iran respond to the current situation. They may represent the best hope for Iranians seeking greater freedom and a better life.

Many Iranians who have spoken to international media have expressed fears of a more repressive regime once the war ends.

If Trump is to claim success in West Asia, he may need to consider how to engage with different actors within Iran to influence the regime’s behaviour towards its people — who have suffered both before and during the war.

Regional players

Pakistan has taken centre stage as a mediator between the US and Iran, hosting the J D Vance-Ghalibaf talks and, thus, creating an opening for direct engagement.

Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has engaged with the US President to extend the ceasefire and has travelled to Iran to meet senior leaders. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar have also reached out to regional capitals.

What is clear is that Gulf states have a significant stake in maintaining peace and stability. These countries have long touted safety and security to position themselves as global financial, business and logistics hubs. Their petrodollar wealth and energy dominance have enabled economic diversification, modern infrastructure and technological growth, making them attractive centres for sports, entertainment and tourism.

Any US-Iran deal is therefore crucial for these economies, which have a vested interest in regional stability.

India’s interests

India, too, has a strong interest in peace in the region. Despite maintaining communication channels with all sides, India was not called upon to play a larger role.

Instead, the US leveraged its renewed engagement with Pakistan, with Field Marshal Munir acting as an effective conduit to Iran. This appears to have caused discomfort in New Delhi.

India has consistently supported efforts towards peace, and should reiterate this position — even if Pakistan receives credit for now. This is in India’s interest — 10 million citizens live in the Gulf, 60% of its energy needs are sourced from the region, and there are significant Gulf investments in its economy.