German Election Results 2025: The frontrunner, significance of these polls for Germany, Europe

“The CDU has also traditionally done well among industry leaders, small-business owners and people with lower or medium education levels,” a report in German news network Deutsche Welle (DW) said.

This time, exit polls suggest a CDU win.

Social Democratic Party (SPD): Current chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party. The centre-left SPD is Germany’s oldest party. Its traditional support base are the trade unions and working classes. “The SPD’s most fertile ground in Germany was traditionally the densely populated industrial region of western Germany, particularly the Ruhr region in North Rhine-Westphalia, as well as the states of Hesse and Lower Saxony,” said the DW report.

Green Party: Popular among the educated, urban voters, the Green Party was founded in 1993. As the name suggests, it champions environmental issues, along with many other causes. “Their supporters marched for everything from ending nuclear power to enacting gay rights — while maintaining the key plank of environmental protection. Their success lies in the fact that all of these causes have been incorporated into mainstream politics…,” the DW report said.

Then there is the neoliberal, pro-free market Free Democratic Party (FDP), founded in 1948; the Left Party, which emerged from the Socialist Unity Party that ruled East Germany, and its breakaway faction BSW; and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far right, Islam- and immigrants-bashing party which has seen a rise in popularity and an endorsement by Elon Musk.

The outgoing government was the ‘traffic light coalition’, based on the colours of the parties involved: the red Social Democrats, the yellow Free Democrats, and the Green Party.

The government collapsed because the Free Democrats rejected tax increases or tweaks to Germany’s rigid self-imposed limits on running up debt. Scholz’s Social Democrats and the Greens were, meanwhile, pushing for higher state investment and were opposed to the Free Democrats’ proposals to cut welfare programmes.

Firewall in German politics

Traditionally, mainstream political parties have joined hands to keep the far right and the far left out of power. This time, the CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz is expected to be in the lead, but might not get enough numbers to come to power on its own. If the AfD wins a significant share of votes, the forming of this ‘firewall’ could get complicated.

AfD’s performance will also show how much the rising popularity of far right rhetoric in Europe is translating into political gains, and if the endorsement by Musk has helped AfD’s cause. If the latter happens, more fringe parties in Europe could queue up for Musk’s favours, enlarging the billionaire’s footprints in politics.

Significance for Europe

The election in Germany comes at a time the US under Donald Trump is being increasingly unfriendly towards Europe, and rather accommodating of Russia. Trump has pledged to stop standing as Europe’s security guarantee. In such a scenario, a strong and stable Germany is critical for Europe.

Germany’s problems are many — its economy is slowing down, its military spending is meagre, it has had strong business ties with both Russia and China, and its internal politics has been unstable. Immigration is becoming an increasingly divisive issue, with several recent attacks by suspected migrants not helping matters. The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, and what sort of support Europe can continue offering Ukraine, remain undecided.

The leadership Germany chooses in this election will decide what sort of leadership Europe as a whole is able to maintain, at a time the Western world looks the most uncertain since World War II.