China This Week | Rajnath at SCO meeting, Iran-China ties, and a report that Xi may skip BRICS summit in Brazil

The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping would not attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in early July. This would mark his absence from the summit for the first time since he became President, the report said.

Finally, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said in a speech that Taiwan was “of course a country”, drawing a sharp response from China, which insists that the island is part of its territory.

Here is a closer look at these developments:

1. Rajnath Singh attends SCO summit

The SCO was established in 2001 to enhance regional cooperation on terrorism, and has 10 members (including Russia, Iran and Pakistan). The Defence Minister made references to Pakistan as part of India’s diplomatic push following the Pahalgam attack. This was also his first visit to China in five years, after the 2020 standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) began.

Singh said, “Some countries use cross-border terrorism as an instrument of policy and provide shelter to terrorists. There should be no place for such double standards. SCO should not hesitate to criticise such nations”.

UPSHOT: In general, international cooperation over terrorism has often been hampered by countries taking positions based on their own strategic interests. The position in the SCO is complicated by the presence of both Pakistan, which is among the world’s most active exporters of terrorism, and India, the primary target of the Pakistani terror infrastructure for decades.

China is Pakistan’s strongest backer in international fora, and has long described their relationship as “iron-clad”. This makes it difficult for India to garner diplomatic consensus against Pakistan-backed terrorist attacks.

There are other complexities too. India has a long-term strategic partnership with Russia, which also has deep ties with China, which have grown stronger after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the targeting of Moscow by Western sanctions. Iran and the Central Asian republics have their own relationships with China.

It remains to be seen whether the SCO leaders’ summit in Tianjin, China, later this year sees a different diplomatic outcome.

2. The oil factor in Iran-China ties

At the SCO meeting, the Iranian Defence Minister thanked Beijing, saying, “We hope China will continue to stand for justice, help maintain the current ceasefire and play a greater role in easing regional tensions.”

On Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned China amid reports of Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz, an important choke point for global oil trade. “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said.

UPSHOT: Questions have been raised in recent days over the limited Chinese involvement in the Middle East, which was mostly restricted to condemnations and statements calling for de-escalation. Iran has now called for a more proactive Chinese role at a forum that identifies security as a priority area. 

Iran has a critical economic relationship with China, which buys about 90% of Iranian oil exports, totalling around 14% of China’s oil purchases. It has evaded Western sanctions through so-called “teapot refineries”, which are smaller and privately owned, compared to state oil companies.

3. Xi and the BRICS summit

The South China Morning Post reported this week that President Xi would not attend the BRICS summit in Rio, “marking his first-ever absence from the gathering of leading emerging economies”.

The Brazilian government had been informed of a scheduling conflict, and Premier Li Qiang could stand in for the President, the report claimed. 

According to the report, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner after the summit could have played a part in the decision by Xi, who would have been wary of being “perceived as a supporting actor” at the gathering.

UPSHOT: Brazil, Russia, India, and China formed the grouping in 2009, with South Africa joining the next year. Today, it has six additional members — Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia. The expansion of BRICS has been seen as countries of the Global South moving away from US-led groupings, and towards a multipolar world order. 

However, both BRICS and the SCO include countries that have important trade relationships with China, and Beijing has often been described as the “driving force” behind their expansions, in light of its own geopolitical rivalry with the US.

4. Is Taiwan a country? Depends on who you ask

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te recently delivered the first two of his 10 planned speeches, called “10 Talks on the Country”. He drew upon history to argue that “Taiwan has never belonged to the People’s Republic of China” (official name for the mainland China government).

China reacted with its usual vehemence, with a Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson describing the speeches as “Taiwan’s independence manifesto”. The people of Taiwan had originally migrated from the Chinese mainland, the spokesperson countered.

“Taiwan has never been a country, and it is an integral part of China,” the spokesperson said, adding, “Taiwan’s future can only be decided by the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people, including our compatriots in Taiwan.”

UPSHOT: The Taiwan issue has been referenced by China as a “red line” in terms of its core security concerns. It has accused the US of backing a “separatist” movement on the island, and has frequently targeted the Taiwanese government.

Increasingly, surveys have recorded that the people of Taiwan identify themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has reiterated this view. It has consecutively won three national elections since 2016, although it returned with a minority government in 2024. 

In less than a month, several “recall” polls will be held in Taiwan for a quarter of the total parliamentary seats, all held by the opposition Kuomintang party. The leaders of Kuomintang fought with Mao’s communists during the Chinese Civil War (1927-49), and fled to Taiwan after the victory of the communists. However, within Taiwanese politics, the Kuomintang has been perceived as being closer to Beijing.

The DPP recently released a video calling on people to “oppose the communists” in the recall, according to a Reuters report. Winning those seats would give the DPP greater control over Parliament.