As China purges top military general Zhang Youxia, the key theories around the extraordinary move

So far, there is no consensus on what exactly led to Zhang’s removal, given the notoriously opaque functioning of the state. Officially, past purges have been justified as cracking down on corruption. Past incidents also indicate that reprieve is unlikely after an investigation begins, and Zhang will be removed from his post.

This effectively means that the seven-member CMC now has only two people: Xi Jinping himself, as the CMC Chairman, and Zhang Shengmin, the other CMC Vice Chairman. He was appointed to the post just three months ago, when his predecessor, He Weidong, was also purged.

Chinese state media outlets published stories on the investigation on Saturday (January 24), and since then, China-watchers and PLA analysts have tried to interpret their language to understand what is happening, and how that might bode for the Chinese military.

Why the current investigation is noteworthy

First, there is the seniority of the people involved. Zhang Youxia holds the seniormost army rank, that of general. He was also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party Central Committee, which is among the top political bodies in China. Apart from Zhang, the investigation will also include fellow CMC member Liu Zhenli, 61, the chief of the CMC’s Joint Staff Department.

A South China Morning Post report added that both Zhang and Liu are “decorated war heroes” and participated in PLA campaigns against Vietnam in the late 1970s.

An editorial in the official newspaper PLA Daily framed the decision as the Communist Party’s commitment to weeding out corruption — something Xi also emphasised when he first assumed power in 2012. He vowed to go after corrupt officials, stating that the targets would range from the top leaders to the lowest-ranking people (what he called “tigers and flies”).

Since 2023, the list of those purged, including civilian leaders, has rapidly accumulated top names in defence, including former Defence Minister Li Shangfu, former Foreign Affairs Minister Qin Gang, and PLA Rocket Force generals. The editorial said the latest move showed a“clear attitude of zero tolerance, no forbidden zones, and full coverage in punishing corruption,” adding that “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”

On the two men, it said they “seriously betrayed the trust and expectations of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission, severely trampled on and undermined the Chairman of the Central Military Commission’s responsibility system (referring to Xi Jinping), seriously fostered political and corruption problems that undermined the Party’s absolute leadership over the military…”

The language used in this portion is the second reason why the investigation has raised eyebrows. Apart from the usual terminology of “indiscipline”, which indicates corruption, there is a perception that Zhang may have done something that Xi deemed as a threat to his authority. Bill Bishop, a US-based journalist and longtime China-watcher, wrote in his newsletter ‘Sinocism’ that the text “makes it sound like Xi saw them as undermining him in the military, at least.”

Further, the editorial stated that such decisions will “rectify the roots and clarify the origins from a political perspective, eliminate toxins and malpractices from an ideological perspective, and remove rot to promote healing from an organizational perspective.”

The third reason concerns the CMC itself. Lyle Morris, a Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and National Security at the Asia Policy Center for China Analysis, recently posted a photo showing its current status on X (recreated in box). Thanks to the purges, the CMC is at its lowest-ever strength.

What the CMC looks like now.

The CMC oversees key aspects of the military, including weapons procurement and combat preparedness. Naturally, the removals have sparked concerns about the health of the military. Additionally, the Defence Minister has previously been a part of the CMC. However, after the previous minister, Li Shangfu, was dismissed from the party in June 2024 (also for corruption charges), his successor, Dong Jun, has not been made a member.

As the SCMP put it, the investigation “marks an unprecedented near-total wipeout of the CMC formed after the 20th party congress in late 2022.”

From factions to Taiwan, the many theories in Zhang Youxia’s case

Several analysts have noted that at this stage, most theories surrounding the episode are just that, but they are based on an understanding of the systems at play.

The SCMP reported a source as saying that Zhang was accused of “failing to rein in his close associates, family members and relatives. He was also blamed for not flagging problems to the party leadership at the first instance.” He was detained formally, and as many others purged before him, he may not be spotted in the public eye for a while, or at all.

Another report from The Wall Street Journal cited a briefing of high-briefing, which accused the general of “leaking information about the country’s nuclear-weapons program to the U.S. and accepting bribes for official acts, including the promotion of an officer to defense minister”. He was also being investigated for “allegedly forming political cliques,” and a wider probe has reportedly been initiated into Zhang’s earlier tenure.

The nuclear leak charge is significant, concerning a highly sensitive issue, but many of the other charges have echoes in past purges. Anushka Saxena, a researcher focusing on the PLA at the Bengaluru-based think tank Takshashila Institution, earlier told The Indian Express that corruption was indeed a serious issue and that Xi had, of late, removed even his loyalists under such charges.

The logic goes that for China to project itself as a major global power, inefficiencies in war planning are not affordable, particularly concerning Taiwan, which China has increasingly laid claims to, saying they will be “unified” in the future.

She also pointed to region-based cliques or factions within the PLA as a potential underlying reason for the purges. Rival factions may seek to expose each other’s past wrongdoings to build pressure for their removal. For instance, there is a grouping comprising leaders who served in Fujian, the coastal province geographically closest to Taiwan.

Purged CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong served in Fujian as well, and he had experience with potential war plans. Inefficiencies in Taiwan-related planning, such as skimming from the defence budget or rigging the weapons acquisition and management process, could have also prompted his removal, Saxena said.

Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shengmin (who replaced He Weidong) are both seen as part of the “Shaanxi gang”, having worked in the northwestern province (as has Xi Jinping). Until recent events, this clique was seen as being dominant within the CMC. Perhaps, the removal was aimed at checking their influence.

Dennis Wilder of Georgetown University in Washington, a former China analyst at the CIA, told The Economist that winning the factional war gave Zhang unprecedented authority, “But it also made him a potential threat to Mr Xi.”

What it says about Xi

Do all of these changes point to Xi’s waning authority, or a potential change in leadership? Not necessarily. In fact, one argument is that Xi purging those close to him could project his image as a leader singularly devoted to fighting corruption. It could point to a man who is capable of making major political changes without facing a challenger.

But the changes may not herald a new-and-improved PLA, just yet. Questions could be raised internally about Xi’s picks, about no one being safe, and could ultimately impact the forces’ morale.

Saxena told The Indian Express, “In the short term, PLA warfighting will face challenges, and lower-level officials (likely linked to Zhang) will be targeted. One cannot possibly imagine that the Chinese military is the same beast when most of its most experienced commanders are purged or constantly replaced. Xi has been targeting service and theatre leaders constantly for the past three years. Of course, trust, cohesion, logistics, training, and hierarchy will all be impacted.”

She added that while activities such as military flybys around Taiwan will continue, as will skirmishes with the Philippines in the South China Sea or with Japan, “war is a different game.”

Writing in her newsletter ‘Eye on China’, Saxena noted that “Of as many as 81 generals promoted by Xi since the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, at least 14 have become flies to be swatted, while at least 23 have been Schrodinger’s generals – they have effectively disappeared with or without notice of investigation.”

“As vice chairmen go away, war planning becomes tougher, and the show of face vis-à-vis actors in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and even the Himalayas becomes tougher,” she wrote.

With Zhang out of the picture, few challengers to Xi remain, Saxena said. While a younger Politburo member could succeed Xi, 72, none of them commanded the gun as Zhang did. For the next Party Congress in 2027, Xi could be re-elected as party leader for a record-extending fourth term, and a new set of loyalists could be assembled, while ensuring their subservience to him, she said.