How Russia has become world’s top wheat exporter at Ukraine’s expense
Ukraine's markets have shifted dramatically from Asia and North Africa before the war to mainly Europe, mostly due to ease of shipment, according to the USDA.
A wheat field in Ukraine's Lviv region. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons) Russia is consolidating its position as the world’s top wheat exporter, even as Ukraine’s shipments are projected to more than halve from their peak and production plunge to a 11-year-low.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated Russia’s wheat exports at a record 45.5 million tonnes (mt) in 2022-23 (July-June), up from 33 mt, 39.1 mt and 34.5 mt in the preceding three marketing years. In the process, it has left behind the European Union, which had exported 39.8 mt in 2019-20, before slipping to 29.7 mt, 32 mt and 34 mt in the following three years.
Moreover, Russia’s wheat exports are expected to touch a new high of 47.5 mt in 2023-24, way ahead of the EU (38.5 mt), Canada (26.5 mt), Australia (25 mt) and Argentina (11 mt). Russia has gained largely at the expense of Ukraine. The war-torn nation’s exports fell from 21 mt in 2019-20 to 16.8 mt in 2022-23 and are forecast to further decline to 10.5 mt in the new marketing year. USDA has projected the country’s production, too, to dip to 17.5 mt, the lowest since 2012-13.
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