US Russian crude waiver expires: What it could mean for India’s oil imports from Russia

With global oil supplies squeezed due to the effective halt in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz amid the West Asia war, these waivers aimed to allow more barrels of oil to reach the international market, thereby easing the supply situation and exerting downward pressure on spiralling oil prices. Experts saw these moves from Washington as part of President Donald Trump’s effort to prevent a further and sustained spike in international oil prices—and the consequent rise in domestic fuel prices in the US—given the midterm elections later this year.

While these short-term waivers, particularly the one on Russian barrels already loaded on tankers, helped bring more oil to the market, their impact on international oil prices is not so clear, as prices have remained elevated since early March. Moreover, the waivers attracted criticism from various sections within the US; critics argued that the waiver for Russian oil led to a windfall for Moscow, which in turn would be used to fund its war effort in Ukraine. Similar arguments were made against the waiver for oil from Iran, with whom the US was locked in battle in West Asia.

India cashed in big on the waiver to buy Russian oil already on water. The country’s Russian oil imports surged through March and April so far, as its refiners moved quickly to secure supplies amid the global supply crunch. Although the West Asia crisis persists, the waiver is now gone, which could lead to some reduction in oil flows from Russia to India. Nonetheless, Russian oil is likely to dominate India’s oil import slate for the foreseeable future.

How India capitalised on the Russian oil waiver

The sanctions waiver for Russian crude was first issued specifically for India in the first week of March and was later extended to all other countries. This waiver allowed countries to import Russian crude for a month—including from sanctioned entities and on board sanctioned tankers—that was loaded on or before 12:01 am Eastern Daylight Time, or 9:31 am India time, on March 12. A week later, a similar waiver was issued for Iranian oil loaded on tankers before March 20.

While government sources maintained that India didn’t require a waiver from the US to buy oil from Russia, industry experts said that the waiver indeed helped. That is because Indian refiners were able to take deliveries of Russian oil on sanctioned tankers and could deal directly with US-sanctioned Russian companies, like Rosneft and Lukoil. Moreover, it temporarily removed any friction between Washington and New Delhi over the latter’s hefty purchases of Moscow’s crude.

For India, the Russian oil waiver allowed for a fast ramp-up of imports of Moscow’s oil amid the major disruption in supplies from West Asia. Indian refiners were also able to secure some cargoes of Iranian oil, marking the first deliveries of Tehran’s crude to India in nearly seven years, although the volumes were insignificant when compared to imports of Russian crude. Around 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of India’s crude imports—accounting for around half of the country’s total oil imports—have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent months; the longer-term average is around 40%. Most of that supply is effectively offline due to the war.

While India was buying significant volumes of Russian crude even before the West Asia war began, the quantity had reduced notably over the past few months, evidently due to the US imposing sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, and amid trade pact negotiations with Washington. The US made a meaningful reduction in India’s Russian oil imports a prerequisite for scrapping its 25% additional penal tariff on New Delhi.

In February, India had imported just over 1 million bpd of Russian crude, almost half of the 2025 peak of over 2 million bpd. Even with the significant reduction in volumes, Russia was India’s largest source of crude in February, accounting for about a fifth of its total oil imports.

Then, with the war in West Asia raging and the sanctions waiver in place, India’s Russian oil imports nearly doubled to 2 million bpd in March, accounting for a whopping 44.4% of India’s total oil imports for the month even as imports from West Asia crashed, according to tanker data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. In the first two weeks of April, India’s Russian oil imports averaged 1.6 million bpd.

Foreseeable future of India’s Russian oil imports

With the waiver now gone, there could be some adjustments and downward pressure on oil imports from Russia, even as Moscow is likely to remain India’s largest source of crude oil in the coming months, according to industry insiders and experts. For India, which is the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil and depends on imports to meet over 88% of its requirement, there aren’t any major alternatives to West Asian oil—in scale, quality, and pricing—apart from Russia in a market that continues to grapple with geopolitical uncertainty.

“The adjustment is more likely to be operational rather than structural—with refiners leaning toward near-term loaded barrels and avoiding directly sanctioned entities, rather than stepping away from Russian crude altogether,” said Sumit Ritolia, manager, modelling & refining at Kpler.

“It’s difficult to see India materially stepping back from Russian barrels. The decision isn’t just about sanctions optics any more; it’s about supply security and economics in a much more fragile system. With continued geopolitical uncertainty and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz still far from normal (restricted transits, higher risk, slower flows), Middle East barrels are not as straightforward as they used to be. In that context, Russian crude continues to offer a clear advantage—both in terms of pricing and relatively stable logistics via non-SoH (Strait of Hormuz) routes,” Ritolia said.

Some industry experts pointed out that while Indian refiners would not directly want to deal with sanctioned Russian oil suppliers—to avoid the risk of attracting secondary sanctions from the US—a number of previously little-known suppliers, intermediaries, and traders have gradually gained a foothold in Russian oil trade over the past few month, particularly after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect in November.

Experts believe that with new entities in the market, Russian oil volumes reaching Indian ports can be maintained at significant levels, as long as the US doesn’t go after these new players or target them or Indian buyers with secondary sanctions. To be sure, Russian oil per se is not sanctioned by Washington; only a few Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil are. Also, over the years, Russia has built a strong and agile network of tankers to transport its oil, helping its oil trade thrive despite a growing number of tankers being sanctioned by the US and other Western powers.

This essentially means that Indian refiners can continue to buy Russian crude as long as no sanctioned entity, vessel, bank, or service provider is involved, and if the seller can provide documentary proof that the oil is not sourced from the sanctioned players. The threat of secondary sanctions from the US is the reason why countries like India, while politically opposed to unilateral economic sanctions, usually steer clear of countries and other entities sanctioned by Washington.