US farm exports to India have been surging even with no trade deal

Meanwhile, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated at a press conference on Tuesday (February 3) that “India has protected the interests of [its] sensitive agriculture and dairy sectors in the trade deal with the US.”

How US exports to India are booming…

But the data on farm trade between the two countries shows US exports to India already surging to record highs and the deficit narrowing — even with no deal signed.

During January-November 2025, the US exported agricultural produce worth $2.85 billion, a 34.1% jump over the $2.13 billion for the same 11 months of the previous year. The exports for the whole of 2025 are set to top $3.1 billion, which would be an all-time high.

On the other hand, US imports of Indian farm produce have risen by only 5.1%, from $5.62 billion in January-November 2024 to $5.91 billion in January-November 2025. America’s agricultural trade deficit with India has correspondingly reduced from $3.5 billion to $3.1 billion. In 2024, the deficit was $3.8 billion (table 1) and not $1.3 billion, as mentioned by Secretary Rollins.

Table 1.

US exports to India have been led by tree nuts — mainly almonds and pistachios — which were valued at $1.1 billion in 2024, while growing by a whopping 32.2% to $1.3 billion-plus during January-November 2025. 

The other two major drivers were cotton and soyabean oil (see table 2).

Table 2.

The US had hugely benefited from India allowing duty-free imports of cotton from August 18 to December 31, 2025. The duty has been restored to 11% from the new calendar year. Crude soyabean oil exports have, likewise, zoomed from virtually zero, following India reducing its effective import duty from 27.5% to 16.5% with effect from May 31, 2025.

Another significant export item is ethanol. The US is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of ethanol, which is primarily produced from corn (maize). India currently permits ethanol imports only for non-fuel industrial purposes, i.e. manufacture of alcohol-based chemicals, beverages or medicines. The US has been pressing hard on India to open up imports of ethanol for blending in petrol and diesel. India has been resisting that, since it would undermine the use of ethanol from domestically-grown sugarcane, maize and rice in the government’s ambitious biofuel programme.

…and Indian exports are flagging

India’s farm exports to the US increased by 5.1% during January-November 2025.

Much of this growth, however, happened in the first half of the year, when the full 50% duty — 25% reciprocal duty plus a 25% penalty linked to Indian imports of Russian oil — imposed by the Trump administration hadn’t taken effect. During July-November 2025, India’s agricultural exports to the US were only at $2,441.6 million, 13.6% down from the $2,825.9 million for the same period of 2024.

It can be seen from table 3 that most exports to the US from India — barring seafood, processed fruits & vegetables, baked goods and sweeteners — took a hit in 2025.

Table 3.

Even in the case of seafood, exports rose by 32.5% in January-June. But during July-November 2025, the value of seafood exports (basically frozen shrimp) was just $984.5 million, as against $1,183.4 million in the corresponding five months of 2024.

Simply put, the 50% Trump tariffs have hurt Indian farm exports to the US. The proposed duty cut to 18% — a reciprocal tariff of 18% and hopefully no Russian oil penalty — should enable India to recover some lost ground.

From the US side, exports of tree nuts, cotton and soyabean oil to India are already doing well. It remains to be seen how much of concessions, both tariff and non-tariff, India is offering on other produce where the US has substantial export interests — corn, soyabean grain, ethanol and dairy products.