Trump’s likely Iran deal: 60-day ceasefires till mid-term polls, negotiated Hormuz passages

While this is still a small figure given the number of vessels stuck on both sides of the Strait due to the dual Iranian and American blockades, it is encouragingly higher than on any given day in late April or early May, a shipping sector source told The Indian Express.

The person indicated that this could be in response to demands from specific countries, such as Vietnam in the case of the Agios Fanourios I, and comes in the wake of Trump’s recent China visit, where Beijing seems to have indicated a hands-off approach to resolving the Strait deadlock while unambiguously conveying its point about the Americans keeping off Taiwan.

So, where is the US-Iran war headed?

The latest deal under discussion by the US and Iran reportedly entails a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an extended plan for taking forward the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.

In a social media post Sunday, Trump said “constructive” talks were moving ahead, but “both sides must take their time and get it right”. Earlier on Saturday, the US President had said an agreement had been “largely negotiated”, prompting speculation that an announcement could be imminent.

Iranian officials also offered similar signals over the weekend, with foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei saying the two sides are both “very close and very far” from reaching an agreement.

According to an independent strategic expert, this deal is tantamount to kicking the can down the road, at least till the upcoming American mid-term elections.

“In all probability, the 60-day ceasefire will be subject to perhaps two more extensions till November. Trump will likely buy time till the mid-terms and till then, passage of ships through the Strait would be allowed on a negotiated basis. The Iranians will likely continue to charge a toll till their demand for some sanctions relief is agreed to, including the unfreezing of assets. For Tehran, its key demand remains the waiver of sanctions in return for keeping the Strait of Hormuz partly open.”

The expert said the impasse suits most of the players.

“The possibility of an escalation of any kind is a looming worry. Given how things are stacked up, the Trump administration will hard sell to its domestic audience that the negotiations are leading to a deal better than the JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the earlier Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama); that the Iranians have been hammered sufficiently; a Sunni government has been installed in Syria; while Hamas has been decimated and Hezbollah weakened substantially. The fact that the Iranian regime continues to be in the saddle and the enriched uranium is still in their control are clear failures.”

For the Iranians, said the expert, the positives include “having shown the US and its allies their place, demonstrating Tehran’s control of the Strait, and its ability to weaponise it going forward. The regime, despite being under fire, is in negotiations to get decades-long sanctions removed. The clerics are even more in control of Tehran than when this war started.”

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baghaei had described a “memorandum of understanding” that is in the works, telling state television Saturday that Iran’s intention was to reach a pact “in the form of a framework, consisting of 14 points”. Baghaei said Tehran was in the process of finalising the memorandum, so further talks could be held within 30 to 60 days “and ultimately a final agreement can be reached”.

On Monday, visiting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Delhi there was a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait” and “enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter.” On the nuclear issue, there is a likelihood that some sort of a broad agreement could be on the table, with specifics and details pushed to the backburner.

The Israel factor

Complicating matters somewhat is that Israel has said it will escalate strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, claiming the militia had ignored warnings to halt firing. A renewed escalation of this conflict could potentially be a spanner in the works for US-Iran negotiations.

Another stumbling block could be Trump’s renewed call for countries in the region to join the Abraham Accords – US-brokered agreements from his first term aimed at getting Arab nations to normalise relations with Israel.

In a long statement posted on Truth Social, Trump said that any agreement to end the Iran war should include a requirement for several additional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to join the Abraham Accords. Trump said he expects that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Jordan would sign up.

“This, in my view, is a non-starter. It only complicates the situation, especially after the Iran war and how many in the region view Israel. There are protests already emanating from Pakistan, which till now has completely played along,” the source indicated.

The problem for Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is that he has consistently sold this war to his domestic audience as offering the possibility of ensuring regime change in Iran. Far from that, the Iranian regime is more entrenched and more confident, in that it has taken whatever America and Israel could throw at it and survived. More importantly, it possesses a weapon it had never leveraged before: the power to close the Strait of Hormuz.