US to blockade Iran’s ports from Monday, Iran threatens ‘severe’ response: Why the strategy reversal

The climbdown

Trump’s latest post calling for a full blockade seems to be as much a reaction to the failed talks as it is to the lifting of American sanctions on the shipment of Iranian oil a few weeks back. While Trump was ostensibly motivated by fear of rising international oil prices, and the calculation was that a few tankers might get the global oil prices down, that has not exactly worked out as per plan.

What the Americans ended up doing was allowing Iran to ship oil, levy a toll, and help finance Tehran’s war. Now, if no Iranian oil gets out, that could be detrimental to Iran’s war effort. That now seems to be a recalibration from the American side, especially after the failure of the Islamabad talks. The US military message seems to nuance Trump’s earlier blunt blockade threat, primarily targeted at keeping its allies in the Gulf on board and also prevent a panic escalation in oil prices.

On the other hand, any fresh blockade also leaves the Iranians with the option of stopping everybody else from transiting the Strait. That really is the only leverage Iran has currently. And for Tehran, it could mean the difference between being faced with another round of devastating bombings or bringing the war to a stop at the earliest with some favourable outcomes.

“The initial post was a strange move by Trump (saying the US Navy will ‘blockade any and all ships’ attempting to enter or leave the Strait). It was perhaps one of the impulsive misfires and the Americans are still working out what to do. Clearly the clarification (by the US Central Command or CENTCOM) makes a nuanced distinction… But that still leaves the Iranians open to stopping everyone else… Basically, the Iranians are not likely to open Hormuz as it’s their only card, and a strong one. In which case it’s going to come down to protecting ships via naval escort and occupation of the coastal zone. Not a foolproof solution by any means but the only way to bring oil prices down,” a shipping expert with experience of the Gulf region told The Indian Express.

“I’m coming round to thinking that under current circumstances, taking Kharg Island would not be a bad move for the Amercians… it would deprive the Iranians of revenue (so less chance of nuclear development), and give Trump the leverage to get them to back down… And in the end, it was always likely to come down to having to fight for the Strait… I’m a bit surprised the US got into this thinking they would not have to contest Hormuz militarily,” he said.

Reversal of policy

Trump’s recent musing about a joint venture with Iran to regulate the Strait of Hormuz flies in the face of America’s long-standing pursuit of the freedom of navigation. Early after winning independence, America’s first international conflict was with its revolutionary ally, France, that focused on neutral trading rights.

Commonly referred to as the Quasi-War with France, this conflict was a limited naval war against French privateers who were seizing American shipping in the Caribbean. This war marked the first action by the US to protect its shipping abroad and the first effort to exert control over the Caribbean Sea. War was never formally declared, and French naval warships directly clashed with American ships in only a few instances. It was solely intended as a war against privateers and was almost entirely waged in the Caribbean, according to records from the US Constitution Museum.

That American commitment to free trade and open sea navigation only deepened over time. In the modern era, the US has patrolled the world’s oceans with its allies, ensuring that critical choke points from the Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca stay open. Trump’s reframing of security as a business venture instead of a public good reflects his broader worldview that sees international relations less as the management of a shared order and of values, and more as a series of transactions in that world, where every commitment is negotiable, every Alliance conditional and every public good a potential profit centre, according to CNN columnist Fareed Zakaria.

Clouds of uncertainty, lack of clarity

Notwithstanding the comments by Trump and the later clarification on the blockade by the US CENTCOM, there are still question marks on how exactly this blockade will be enforced, and its efficacy. For instance, how would the US Navy be able to ascertain which vessels paid a toll to Iran? With GPS spoofing and bogus port calls prevalent in the region, it would be difficult to identify which vessels actually made calls at Iranian ports and which didn’t. Will Iran respond by targeting foreign-flagged merchant vessels stranded in the region? There is also the ever-present risk of Yemen-based Houthi rebels targeting the Red Sea shipping route in Tehran’s support.

Also, will US forces use weapon systems to target merchant vessels or board them to take control of the ships? How will countries—to whom these vessels belong or where they may be headed with cargo—react, particularly China that buys a lot of Iranian oil? At this stage, the US has not provided any significant details on most of these counts. According to some experts, announcing a blockade and actually enforcing it are two very different things, and the whether or not the Americans achieve their objective will hinge on how effective they are in keeping the blockade limited to Iran, while facilitating maritime traffic movement to and from non-Iranian ports in the region.

Before the war, around 150 vessels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz on average; the number for the entire month of March was about 150 vessels, as per estimates. Nearly all the vessels that have crossed the Strait since early March have done so with Tehran’s nod, with reports indicating that some had to pay tolls or transit fees to safely cross the chokepoint. Iran has been saying that any vessel looking to cross the Strait should do it in coordination with the country’s armed forces.

Moreover, the medium-term impact of the American blockade on oil and gas prices remains to be seen, although the blockade announcement did lead to a jump in oil prices on Monday. If the Iranian oil supply goes off the market due the blockade, while much of the non-Iranian Gulf oil flows also remain largely suspended through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil availability would tighten further, which could lead to higher prices.

On the other hand, if the Iranian flows stop but oil from other West Asian countries starts flowing more freely as a result of this selective blockade, supply tightness as well as prices would ease. And that will majorly depend on whether ship-owners and maritime insurers would be willing to risk ignoring Iran’s warnings and depending on the American blockade.