Why war and weather could push up food prices

Russia Ukraine war heating up

Since mid-July, Ukraine has also stepped up attacks on grain vessels, maritime infrastructure and ports on the Sea of Azov and the vital Kerch Strait that connects it to the Black Sea. These have significantly restricted movement of Russian agricultural produce through ports such as Rostov-on-Don, Taganrog, Taman, Kavkaz, and now Novorossiysk.

The Kerch Strait connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. (Map generated using AI)

Russia has, likewise, targeted Ukrainian port facilities and vessel operations around the Greater Odesa region. This shipping hub on the Black Sea coast — comprising three deep-water ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi (formerly Yuzhny) — handles some 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports.

The intensification of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine over the last month comes on top of excessive heat and dry weather in the European Union (EU).

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected EU’s wheat production to fall by 7.5% from 145.1 mt in 2025-26 to 134.2 mt in this marketing year, while its output of corn (maize) is expected to dip from 56.8 mt to 50.2 mt (a nearly two-decade low), barley from 56.4 mt to 52.3 mt, oats from 8.9 mt to 8 mt and rye from 7.7 mt to 7.2 mt.

All this is beginning to impact food prices.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) benchmark food price index touched a three-and-a-half year high in July. The latest Ukrainian hit on Novorossiysk — followed by Russia’s on Ukraine’s largest Danube port of Izmail in southwestern Odesa, bordering Romania across the river — have driven up prices of corn and wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade exchange by 4-5% since Tuesday.

Export prices of wheat from the US are currently ruling at $321 per tonne, as against $235 a year ago, while similarly climbing for grain from EU ($239 to $262), Canada ($259 to $292), Australia ($255 to $291) and Argentina ($234 to $239).

Europe’s severe summer

Two things are happening. First, the reduction in crop yields due to record-breaking temperatures from late spring through the summer months are likely to push greater grain imports by the EU.

But the simultaneous escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has, secondly, also meant logistical disruptions to Black Sea shipping. Low river water levels caused by drought, limiting the possibilities for alternative routes such as via the Danube and even affecting inland transportation to ports, haven’t helped either.

For an idea of what the recent escalations have entailed, Ukraine recorded 57 attacks on vessels and 67 on port facilities in July. By contrast, the whole of 2025 saw ships being attacked just 14 times.

As per USDA data, Russia and Ukraine had a combined 27.4% share of global wheat exports in 2025-26, while accounting for 15.8%, 12.5% and 61.5% of the shipments of barley, corn and sunflower oil respectively.

While there is no shortage of production of grain or sunflower seed in either country, the crisis is about shipping out the produce, as the intensified cross-border missile and drone strikes leads to increased shipowner and crew reluctance, soaring insurance premiums and reduced vessel calls at ports.

This image provided by Vantor shows smoke in an overview of port infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Russia, Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026. (Satellite image: Vantor via AP)

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry has already cut its forecast of the country’s farm produce exports for 2026-27 from 64.4 mt to 29.6 mt, with wheat shipment estimates alone downgraded from 17.6 mt to 8.3 mt. Russia can consider alternative routes that include ports on the Baltic, Caspian and Far East seas or overland rail links. At the end of the day though, more than 80% of its grain exports go through the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.

The current surge in Russia-Ukraine hostilities has huge implications. The FAO food price index had peaked in March 2022 when the war had just begun. Prices remained elevated till early 2023, by which time grain shipments had resumed through safe maritime corridors in the Black Sea established under a UN-backed initiative.

With Russia and Ukraine launching a fresh wave of strikes on vessels and ports along one of the world’s most strategic shipping lane for agricultural produce, it could potentially add to the problems from the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – not to speak of heatwaves in Europe and El Niño.

In short, while the Strait of Hormuz has drawn the world’s and India’s attention through much of this year, the other major trade chokepoint — the Black Sea, Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait — may matter no less in the coming days.