Trump says India will stop buying Russian oil. That is easier said than done

But completely halting Russian oil imports doesn’t appear to be a feasible option for India in the prevailing circumstances. Moreover, even a substantial reduction in import volumes from Russia and a corresponding increase in American and Venezuelan crude supplies are easier — and faster — said than done, according to industry executives and experts. 

Technical and commercial challenges exist, and so do considerations around India’s strategic autonomy on its energy trade. Industry analysts expect a gradual reduction rather than a sudden stop. 

Russian oil will remain a big chunk of imports for months

Indian refiners have already booked Russian oil cargoes through March and even part of April, and turning them down is not really an option. So, even if there is a heavy cut in Russian oil purchases, Indian refiners will need an extended window to wind down their purchase of Russian crude. Even if they do that on the government’s advice, one refiner — Nayara Energy — will not be in a position to do so, experts pointed out.

Nayara is completely reliant on Russian crude after coming under EU sanctions last July (Photo: A Nayara Energy facility).

Nayara Energy, which counts Russia’s national oil company Rosneft as a significant shareholder, is almost entirely dependent on Russian crude. This is because it has been sanctioned by the European Union, while Rosneft has been sanctioned by the US as well, in addition to the EU. 

With these sanctions in place, the refiner, which processes 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude, has not been able to secure oil from most countries, other than Russia. Unless Nayara Energy is able to get a stable and consistent supply of crude from other sources, asking it to shun Russian oil would translate to effectively shutting the refinery.

“It’s unlikely that India will slash (Russian oil) imports to zero. Nayara is completely reliant on Russian crude after coming under EU sanctions last July, so there is at least 400,000 bpd capacity whose needs have to be met. Imports may be reduced from an average of around 1.6 million bpd in 2025 to around 0.5 million bpd,” said Vandana Hari, energy expert and founder of Singapore-based energy markets intelligence firm Vanda Insights.

Some other industry experts agreed that once the already-contracted volumes of Russian crude are delivered to Indian refiners, and if the government indeed wants to seriously cut down on Russian oil imports, the volumes in the medium term could fall to around 500,000 bpd, which would be roughly half of the oil Indian refiners imported from Russia in January.

Now, over the past couple of months, India’s Russian oil imports have declined steadily to a three-year low, as per tanker data. This followed US sanctions against Russia’s top oil producers and exporters Rosneft and Lukoil. From the 2025 peak of 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, India’s Russian oil imports dropped to 1.16 million bpd in January 2026, according to data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler.

Despite this decline, Russian oil still accounted for a dominant 22% share in India’s total oil imports in January, although it is much lower than the 35-40%-plus share Moscow’s oil used to enjoy in India’s oil import basket. And this dominance is likely to continue for a few months, at least. Even at 500,000 bpd, Russian crude would account for roughly 10% of India’s oil imports.

“India’s Russian crude imports are unlikely to see a near-term decline. Volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on (Russia’s flagship crude grade) Urals relative to ICE Brent (a benchmark). Imports are expected to remain broadly stable in the 1.1–1.3 million bpd range through Q1 (January-March) and early Q2 (April-June),” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler. 

Replacing Russian crude with US, Venezuelan oil is difficult

Theoretically, replacing Russian crude with oil from other countries is not particularly difficult, considering Russian oil’s share in India’s oil imports prior to the Ukraine war was less than 2%. But to what extent American and Venezuelan oil could replace Russian crude is the key question.

According to industry insiders, India has been increasing its oil imports from the US and can continue to do so, provided it is priced competitively, as the cost of shipping oil from the US to India is currently more than double of getting oil from West Asia. 

The other key consideration would be the US crude grades on offer and their compatibility with Indian refineries. This is because different crude grades are suitable for different petroleum products from an operational and efficiency perspective. Indian refineries are currently more accustomed to medium-sour crudes from Russia and West Asia, although they have the capability to process nearly all types of crude. US crude is lighter and sweeter.

Venezuelan oil, which India has not been importing due to US sanctions, presents a major opportunity for Indian refiners. Trump recently said that India will be purchasing oil from Venezuela, and that the deal or the “concept of the deal” to allow New Delhi to import Caracas’s crude oil is in place.

While relatively more similar to Russian oil than American crude, Venezuela’s oil production is currently limited to just about 1 million bpd, and that crude is also in high demand in the US, which means that it can only partially replace Russian volumes consumed by India. And meaningfully raising Venezuela’s oil output would take a few years and billions of dollars of investments.

“US crude could account for up to around 10% of India’s crude intake, largely displacing lighter West African grades rather than Russian supply. Venezuelan crude may resurface opportunistically, but volumes are likely to remain episodic and constrained by economics, sanctions compliance and blending requirements, making it more of a pricing lever than a structural alternative,” said Ritolia.

A question of India’s strategic, trade autonomy

India took a strong stance on its strategic autonomy for most of last year, even as the Trump administration exerted pressure over New Delhi for its hefty Russian oil purchases, including by imposing an additional 25% tariff. India showed no meaningful signs of buckling under US pressure on the issue, even as there was a domestic trade-off at play—the prohibitive cost of sky-high US tariffs on India’s small and medium exporters versus the relatively lower savings accrued by large refiners by buying discounted Russian crude.

Trump’s public posturing also made it difficult for India to cut back on Russian oil immediately even if it wanted to. It was clear that India did not want to compromise on its strategic autonomy and was unwilling to be dictated to by the US on whom it should be doing business with, particularly when it comes to Russia—an old and key strategic partner. Even the reduction in Russian oil imports in recent months came only after Rosneft and Lukoil were sanctioned by the US.

Thursday’s statement from the MEA indicates that the government is unlikely to change its stance on India’s trade autonomy. In that context, maintaining some volumes of Russian oil supply would work well for New Delhi. According to industry experts, 500,000 bpd of Russian oil imports would still serve the American objective of tightening Russia’s revenue from oil exports.

“That would still be a major blow to Russia, as it would not be easy for the country to place another 1 million bpd into China (the other major buyer of Russian oil) and the discounts are likely to widen further. So, that serves Trump’s purpose of putting pressure on Putin with an aim to breaking the Ukraine stalemate far better than any incremental sanctions,” said Hari.

“A more pronounced reduction (in Russian oil imports) would likely require a clear policy shift by the Government of India, which appears highly unlikely given that energy security and economics remain a primary policy objective amid increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics shaping global oil trade flows,” said Ritolia.