So, in theory, the countries that control the inputs for manufacturing – magnets, critical minerals etc. – could potentially shape the rules for everyone else. As a former diplomat put it, “India should read Pax Silica as a map of where leverage will sit.” That’s why, not making it to the first list has a subtle message.
So far, the refrain in India’s policy circles has been that while the bilateral trade relations with the US have been negatively impacted, the Trump administration in Washington DC has continued to be bullish on the relationship with India when it comes to strategic issues and defence cooperation. But being left out initially, and then belatedly brought into Pax Silica almost as an afterthought, exactly like it happened in the case of MSP, could be a reminder that India needs to be seen as bringing something to the table if it has to be a natural partner of choice in any US-led strategic initiative.
Why India was not on the list
Pax Silica aims to build a secure supply chain ranging from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing and semiconductors, all of which are also areas of concern for New Delhi. A reason why India was not on the list is because it is simply seen as lacking the critical edge technologies or access to resources that Pax Silica is targeting, and is not a major repository of critical minerals.
That is not the case with the list of eight countries that Pax Silica brought together, each of which had something to offer.
The Netherlands, for instance, has a stranglehold over specialised lithography machines that are extremely hard to substitute for chipmaking, while Japan and South Korea have technology and manufacturing expertise.
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Australia is a repository of critical minerals and has mining expertise, while Israel is an innovation and technology centre and Singapore is a global transhipment hub, experts said.
The UK is a services and tech hub, while the UAE has made visible progress in fostering AI expertise and ramping up supporting infrastructure.
Earlier, in the case of the MSP too, the first list of partners chosen by the Biden administration had Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, and the European Commission, besides Australia, Japan, South Korea and the UK.
India too has been trying to position itself as a spoke in the global supply chain realignment as American and European companies look to diversify away from China.
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Pax Silica
Pax Silica is a US-led strategic initiative to counter China’s dominance in new age sectors. It aims to reduce what the US calls “coercive dependencies” and protect materials and capabilities “foundational to artificial intelligence”, and “ensure aligned nations can develop and deploy transformative technologies at scale”. The fine print issued by the US State Department after the initiative was launched in December says the move aims to build a “secure, prosperous, and innovation-driven silicon supply chain” to secure access across the AI stack, from minerals and chips to security and logistics.
A US Department of State statement in December said the inaugural Pax Silica Summit brought together counterparts from Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Australia. “Together, these countries are home to the most important companies and investors powering the global AI supply chain,” the statement said. The common theme in this initial list is that these are countries that have some sort of a lead in AI or semiconductor supply chain, and where India currently does not have anything to tangibly show for it. Just like in the case of earlier such initiatives, particularly the MSP.
The US initiative, while it intends to sideline China and India naturally sees itself in being part of such an initiative, the lack of processing capacity and expertise is the primary reason why India did not make the cut right at the outset. For both MSP and now Pax Silica, considerable lobbying by New Delhi was done to get in, government officials told The Indian Express.
Thrust areas
Experts have said China’s dominance in the global critical minerals market, which has created a wide gap in price points between Chinese products and those produced elsewhere, is a shared challenge. While this could help India attract American investments, it could also expose it to coercion by China over its deepening involvement with the US.
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Measures under Pax Silica include pursuing new joint ventures and strategic co-investment opportunities, protecting sensitive technologies and critical infrastructure from undue access or control by countries of concern and building trusted technology ecosystems, including ICT systems, fibre-optic cables, data centres, foundational models and applications.
“The initiative responds to growing demand from partners to deepen economic and technology cooperation with the United States and understanding that AI represents a transformative force for our long-term prosperity. Recognition that trustworthy systems are essential for safeguarding our mutual security and prosperity,” the US State Department said. Most of these resonate with India’s strategic intent.
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, in an interview in October, had framed China’s new export controls on critical minerals as “China versus the rest of the world”, stating that the US is pushing back firmly and expects strong support from “Europe, India and other Asian democracies”. India still ended up outside of Pax Silica in the first list.
