Udit Misra writes: In corporate India’s sales data, another reason why GDP growth is being questioned
The question is: While India’s GDP has been surprising observers on the upside every quarter this financial year, what has happened to the growth rate of net sales in corporate India?
According to the official forecast — technically called the First Advance Estimates — in the current financial year that will end in March, India’s economic output (measured by Gross Domestic Product or GDP) will grow by 8% in nominal terms and 7.4% in real terms.
The difference between real and nominal growth is the level of inflation in the economy. The nominal GDP is the actual observed value of the GDP, and by removing the effect of inflation, one derives the real GDP growth rate.
The curious thing about these numbers has been that, when compared by past standards, an 8% nominal GDP growth is fairly weak — more often than not, India’s nominal GDP has been closer to 12% — and a 7.4% real GDP growth is fairly strong.
This rather confusing situation has been compounded by persistent arguments by critics, including the former Chief Economic Advisor to the incumbent government, that India’s official data for economic growth doesn’t tally with many other sets of data in the economy.
For instance, if the whole economy is growing at 8% on average, which is a fairly low growth rate by itself, then it would stand to reason that the biggest companies in corporate India would be growing their sales at a much faster rate. India’s GDP is the average, and many parts of the economy, like agriculture, often grow at a slower rate.
The question is: While India’s GDP has been surprising observers on the upside every quarter this financial year, what has happened to the growth rate of net sales in corporate India?
The TABLE alongside gives the growth rates for the past five quarters, going all the way back to the quarter ending December 2024. Since net sales data is in nominal terms, the India GDP growth rate is also in nominal terms for a fair comparison. As can be seen, corporate India’s net sales growth has lagged behind overall GDP growth rate.
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Nominal growth rate of GDP
Nominal growth rate of Net Sales of Corporate India
The December 2025 data for net sales growth rate has been sourced from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)’s Economic Outlook database. It is based on the financial statements of 319 “early birds” — or companies that have released their results for the December quarter sooner than others. The data for the rest of quarters is based on the results of almost 5,000 companies.
CMIE’s analysis finds that sales growth has remained consistently in the single digits for the past 10 quarters. Further, it notes that results of the early birds indicate that growth in net sales may have lost a little more steam in the December 2025 quarter.
“The average year-on-year growth in corporate sector sales in the first three quarters of 2025-26 works out to about 5.8%, in nominal terms. This, at least to an extent, belies the story of the non-farm Indian economy growing at about 8% in real terms in the same year,” says Mahesh Vyas, the MD and CEO of CMIE.
Udit Misra is Senior Associate Editor at The Indian Express. Misra has reported on the Indian economy and policy landscape for the past two decades. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics and is a Chevening South Asia Journalism Fellow from the University of Westminster.
Misra is known for explanatory journalism and is a trusted voice among readers not just for simplifying complex economic concepts but also making sense of economic news both in India and abroad.
Professional Focus
He writes three regular columns for the publication.
ExplainSpeaking: A weekly explanatory column that answers the most important questions surrounding the economic and policy developments.
GDP (Graphs, Data, Perspectives): Another weekly column that uses interesting charts and data to provide perspective on an issue dominating the news during the week.
Book, Line & Thinker: A fortnightly column that for reviewing books, both new and old.
Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025)
His recent work focuses heavily on the weakening Indian Rupee, the global impact of U.S. economic policy under Donald Trump, and long-term domestic growth projections:
Currency and Macroeconomics:
"GDP: Anatomy of rupee weakness against the dollar" (Dec 19, 2025) — Investigating why the Rupee remains weak despite India's status as a fast-growing economy.
"GDP: Amid the rupee's fall, how investors are shunning the Indian economy" (Dec 5, 2025).
"Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2025: How the winners explained economic growth" (Oct 13, 2025).
Global Geopolitics and Trade:
"Has the US already lost to China? Trump's policies and the shifting global order" (Dec 8, 2025).
"The Great Sanctions Hack: Why economic sanctions don't work the way we expect" (Nov 23, 2025) — Based on former RBI Governor Urjit Patel's new book.
"ExplainSpeaking: How Trump's tariffs have run into an affordability crisis" (Nov 20, 2025).
Domestic Policy and Data:
"GDP: New labour codes and opportunity for India's weakest states" (Nov 28, 2025).
"ExplainSpeaking | Piyush Goyal says India will be a $30 trillion economy in 25 years: Decoding the projections" (Oct 30, 2025) — A critical look at the feasibility of high-growth targets.
"GDP: Examining latest GST collections, and where different states stand" (Nov 7, 2025).
International Economic Comparisons:
"GDP: What ails Germany, world's third-largest economy, and how it could grow" (Nov 14, 2025).
"On the loss of Europe's competitive edge" (Oct 17, 2025).
Signature Style
Udit Misra is known his calm, data-driven, explanation-first economics journalism. He avoids ideological posturing, and writes with the aim of raising the standard of public discourse by providing readers with clarity and understanding of the ground realities.
You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @ieuditmisra
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