How an anonymous gambler made nearly half-a-million dollars via Maduro capture bet

According to Polymarket data, on Friday afternoon, traders assessed Maduro’s exit probability at merely 6.5 per cent. By midnight, odds had jumped to 11 per cent, then surged dramatically in the early hours of Saturday—just before President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. This sudden shift suggests traders potentially positioned themselves with advanced knowledge of the military operation.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate in a sector called prediction markets, or opinion trading. These platforms allow users to wager on the outcome of future events. While there are some regulations on the sector in countries like the US, they are not as heavily regulated or scrutinised, like traditional stock markets. In India, the government banned such platforms last year as part of a broader crackdown on the online gambling sector.

What are opinion trading platforms?

Opinion trading platforms provide their users or participants a platform to trade or enter into arrangements wherein the payout is dependent on the outcome of a yes/no proposition of happening or not happening of the underlying event.

In some cases, opinion trading platforms are designed in a manner so as to resemble an investment platform as they use terminologies such as profits, stop loss, trading etc., terms closely associated with trades in securities.

These platforms allow participants to earn money by investing in their predictions on any sports, political, weather, or crypto events. Participants can bet on any event based on their predictions. If the predictions are correct, a participant makes money, and in case the prediction goes wrong they lose.

For instance, in Maduro’s instance, one of the most popular questions on Polymarket was whether he will be in US custody by January 31. The question was first floated on the platform on January 3, and initially, had less than 15 per cent people betting a ‘yes’ to it. However, within a few hours, the tide turned significantly, and the ‘yes’ bets surged past 99 per cent.

The opinion trading sector is regulated across countries like the US, UK and Australia. In the US, it is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), one the country’s two main stock market regulators.

Polymarket had earlier come under the scrutiny of the US Department of Justice for allegedly accepting trades from US-based users. At the time, the company was not registered with the CFTC and as a result, could not legally allow US-based users to wager on the platform. It was only registered in the US in late 2025.

India’s crackdown on prediction markets

It started with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) cautioning investors that no investor protection mechanisms were available on prediction markets. “Since none of the platforms providing opinion trading can qualify to be recognised as a stock exchange, and are neither registered or regulated by SEBI, any trading of securities on them is illegal (in case some of the opinions traded qualify as security),” SEBI had said in early 2025.

Then, in August 2025, the government placed a blanket ban on all online money gaming services, which impacted companies such as Probo and Opinio that offered opinion trading services. The law, called The Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 the government will prohibit any person from offering online games in India, failing which they could be imprisoned for up to three years, and penalised Rs 1 crore. Those promoting such platforms, such as social media influencers, will also face jail time of two years, and a penalty of Rs 50 lakh. The government will also prohibit banks and financial institutions from facilitating financial transactions on such platforms.

At its height, the opinion trading sector had garnered over 5 crore users in India, and had received more than Rs 4,200 crore in funding from over 35 investors which include Sequoia Capital (PeakXV), Elevation Capital, Accel Partners, Soma Capital and Y Combinator.