In 2025-26 (April-March), India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils and 1.1 mt of raw cotton, valued at $19.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. Further, it imported nearly 6 mt of pulses – the highest after 2024-25 and 2016-17 – worth $3.6 billion (see table 1).
The current fiscal could see even these records broken, thanks to El Niño. The impact of this climate phenomenon – an abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, associated with dry weather across India, Southeast Asia and Australia – is already being felt.
Rainfall for the country as a whole in June was 38% below the normal long-period average for the month. While July so far has registered a lower 9.9% shortfall, the cumulative deficiency for the four-month southwest monsoon season (June-September) as on July 19 is still at 23.8%.
Kharif sowing lag
Table 2.
The lack of rain has affected plantings of most kharif (monsoon-cultivated) crops. While overall sown area till July 10 was 16% below that for the same period of 2025, the decline was even more in pulses (23.3%) and oilseeds (21%).
Within pulses, the year-on-year acreage drop was 30.3% for arhar (pigeon pea) and 29.7% for urad (black gram). In oilseeds, it has ranged from 16% for soyabean to 34% for groundnut and 46% for sesamum. The progressive area sown under cotton, too, has fallen 15.3% compared to last year’s corresponding coverage (table 2).
“Rainfall has been weak and also scattered. There are areas within 20-25 km of the same taluka (sub-district) that have received showers and those which haven’t,” said Nitin Kalantri, a leading dal miller from Latur in Maharashtra.
The monsoon’s revival seen during the first week of July should help somewhat close the above gaps and may be reflected in the Agriculture Ministry’s kharif sowing data update on Monday. “Sowing of pulses, including arhar (a 5-6 months crop), can take place till July-end. What we need is good rains over next two weeks,” added Kalantri.
The same goes for cotton, where the sowing window in the main growing belts of central and southern India usually shuts by mid-July. This can be extended till the month-end, if the monsoon is delayed or erratic.
“Cotton doesn’t need too much rain. Also, the price sentiment for cotton is good this time, with many farmers keen to shift from rice and maize,” M. Prabhakar Rao, chairman and managing director of the Medchal (Telangana)-based Nuziveedu Seeds Ltd, pointed out.
According to him, less rainfall would be a problem more from the standpoint of pink bollworm (PBW) infestation, which can bring down crop yields: “PBW is a monophagous pest that feeds exclusively on cotton. Frequent rains help in disrupting the mating cycle of the adult moths, besides drowning the pupae in the soil. Prolonged dry weather is conducive for uninterrupted mating, egg-laying and the growth of larvae that bore into the developing bolls”.
El Niño worries
While the monsoon rainfall deficit is quite significant now, the worry is more from a strengthening El Niño in the months ahead.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast an 81% probability of the present El Niño intensifying into a “very strong” event during October-December, with a 97% chance of it persisting through the spring months till March-April.
Given that El Niño is known to not only suppress rainfall, but also raise temperatures, it could translate into a relatively short and warm upcoming winter. That can potentially hurt the ensuing rabi (winter-spring) season crops such as wheat, rapeseed-mustard, chana (chickpea), masoor (red lentil) and potato as well.
The brunt of all this would be borne by oilseeds, pulses, millets and cotton, which are predominantly rainfed crops, unlike rice, wheat or sugarcane. The current developing El Niño – which, NOAA believes, may turn out to be “among the largest… events in the historical record going back to 1950” – can result in India’s vegetable oil, pulses and cotton imports also scaling a new peak.
The comfort factors
On the positive side, stocks of rice and wheat in government godowns, at 68.3 mt and 53.4 mt respectively on June 1, were way above the corresponding minimum required levels of 13.5 mt and 27.6 mt for July 1.
Government agencies are also reportedly holding over 4 mt stock of pulses, which includes 2 mt of chana and 0.6-0.7 mt of arhar.
“They can offload these in a worst-case scenario. There is also scope to import, especially with fresh shipments of arhar from East Africa (Mozambique, Tanzania, Malawi and Sudan) expected in August-September. Likewise, masoor from Canada and Australia would be ready for shipping after September and November respectively. The voyage time for these would be 20-30 days,” noted Kalantri.
Also, unlike in 2022, post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world is awash with ample stocks from the record global harvests of wheat, rice, corn (maize), sugar and even soyabean, rapeseed and palm oil in 2025-26.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s benchmark food price index was up just 1.7% year-on-year in June. The only commodity of worry is vegetable oils, where the index in June was 23.3% higher than a year ago. The landed prices of imported crude palm, soyabean and sunflower oil in Mumbai, at $1,235, $1,292 and $1,455 per tonne on Friday, was higher than their corresponding July 2025 average of $1,095, $1,191 and $1,216 respectively.
A key reason for vegetable oil prices firming up is their alternate use as biofuel. When crude petroleum prices harden – as they are with the resumption of the conflict in West Asia – there is added incentive to divert palm, rapeseed and soyabean oil for the production of fatty acid methyl esters, which can substitute regular diesel.
In the coming days, if the monsoon continues to play truant, one can expect two actions from the government.
The first is a slashing of import duties – currently 16.5% on crude palm, soyabean and sunflower oil, 30% on yellow peas and 10% on masoor and chana. This will be alongside continuation of nil duty on imports of arhar, urad and raw cotton.
Secondly, one shouldn’t rule out the government even going slow on the ethanol-blended petrol programme. That could involve bringing back restrictions on diversion of sugarcane juice/syrup and even intermediate-stage ‘B-heavy’ molasses for making ethanol.
Within pulses, the year-on-year acreage drop has been 30.3% for arhar. (Express Photo) 
Table 1.
Table 2.
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