Why the collapse of Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam is an ecological disaster

The damage to a hydroelectric power plant is not only a blow to a renewable energy resource but also adds to the already strained power generation capacity of Ukraine. Compounding the troubles, concerns have also been raised over the risks to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which relied on the reservoir for cooling its reactor. Breaching required temperatures could have disastrous results.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal pegs the preliminary environmental damage at $1.5 billion. We take a look at the ecological impact of the collapse of the Kakhovka dam, even as the aftermath continues to unfold.

Floods and destruction

The Ukraine-appointed governor of Kherson, Oleksandr Prokudin, on Thursday (two days after the dam collapsed) stated that the region was witnessing an average flooding of 18.41 feet. Ukrainian officials estimate that about 42,000 people are at risk on both sides of the river. While the left bank of the Dnipro River remains under Ukrainian control, the right side is controlled by the Russians.

According to Prokudin, 68 per cent of the flooded territory was on the left bank. Russian officials state that nearly 6,000 people have already been evacuated from the affected regions.

Preliminary analysis by the United Nations based on satellite imagery (see graphic below) shows the extent of the flood till June 9. Nearly 620 square kilometres of land have been affected by the flooding so far, and 1,10,000 people are expected to be impacted.

Animals are most vulnerable to the fast-moving water, as rescue efforts are largely focused on people. The 300 animals residing at Kazkova Dibrova Zoo on the Russian-held riverbank have died after the region was flooded.

Calling the incident an “ecocide”, the Ukrainian environment minister, Ruslan Strilets, told DW, “I understand that some parts of wild nature we’ve lost forever”. An NGO, Ukrainian Nature Conservation Group (UNCG), states that one of the major impacts will be felt by the fish population, with the water in the Kakhovka reservoir, the country’s largest in volume, dipping, and damage to their spawning grounds. Downstream, the flooding will also impact territorial flora and fauna. The rise in water will increase soil salinity, making it unfit for vegetation.

According to Strilets, around 600-800 tons of oil may be floating in the floodwaters, creating a toxic environment for wildlife. Moreover, as water moves along, it will collect large amounts of pollutants from sewage, industries, gas stations and agricultural lands, and deposit them into freshwater resources. Strilets estimates that around one million people will be left without fresh water.

The pollutants are likely to cause microbes and algae to spread over the surface of the water. This also leads to an increase in diseases, with the most common ones being diarrhoea or skin infection.

Eventually, the water will flow into the Black Sea. The entry of freshwater and pollutants is likely to disturb the marine ecosystem. Noting this risk, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a press briefing during his visit to the affected region said, “it’s not happening somewhere else. It is all interrelated in the world.”

Impact on agriculture

A statement by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine said that it “foresees the flooding of approximately 10 thousand hectares of agricultural land on the right bank in the Kherson region. And also several times more on the left bank of the region, which is currently under occupation.” The collapse of the dam has left “94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% in Zaporizhia, and 30% in Dnipropetrovsk regions without a source of water”. The Ministry warned that the agricultural lands may turn into “deserts” by early next year.

The flooding is likely to make arable lands unfit for agriculture for years to come due to increased salinity in the soil, as well as contamination of irrigation canals. This might be a setback for Ukraine’s grain production, as the southeastern belt around the Dnipro River is cultivated for wheat and millet. Kherson on its accounts for eight per cent of soybean production, according to data provided by the US Department of Agriculture. Besides, barley and sunflower are also produced in the region.

Often called the “bread basket” of the world, 64 per cent of Ukraine’s wheat is exported to developing countries, including many in Africa. The onset of war has in fact raised concerns over global food security and in July 2022, a grain deal was signed between the warring countries to allow the passage of grains through the Black Sea.

Impact on Energy

According to the Energy Damage Assessment report by the UN Development Programme and the World Bank, Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has left 12 million people with no or limited electricity.

Ukraine relies on its four nuclear power plants, considered to be a clean energy source, for over half of its energy needs. The largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizhzhia, which is occupied by Russian forces on June 10 shut down its last operating reactor, owing to the declining water levels of the Kakhovka reservoir. Water from the reservoir was used to cool down the reactors. Though the International Atomic Energy Agency had stated that the nuclear plant wasn’t under immediate threat as there are alternative water resources such as a cooling pond, the Ukrainian nuclear agency said the reactor was shut down as a safety precaution.

The damage to the hydroelectric dam is also a hit to the renewable energy resources in Ukraine. Ukrhydroenergo, the company behind hydropower generation in the country, on June 10 reported that hydroelectric power plants upstream are functioning at a reduced capacity as a consequence of the collapse of the Kakhovka dam.

According to the World Hydropower Outlook 2023 report, Ukraine has a total of 6,317 MW of installed hydropower capacity. The Kakhovka power plant has a capacity of 375 MW. The blow to the power plant has implications for the future of the country’s hydropower, which is already under-utilised according to an analysis by the UkrHydroProject (UHP).