Is Holi becoming warmer than before? What a new study says

The findings show that during March and April, India has been witnessing 'an abrupt transition in the temperatures from cool winter-like temperatures to much warmer conditions now,' according to experts.

Students celebrate Holi at the Guru Nanak Dev University, in Amritsar, Friday. (Representational image/PTI Photo)

3 min readNew DelhiMar 25, 2024 06:34 PM IST First published on: Mar 23, 2024 at 08:00 AM IST

Since 1970, both March and April have become warmer across India, increasing the chances of having unconformable and possibly dangerously hot conditions, according to a study published on Friday. As a result, in some states, there is a higher likelihood of temperatures around Holi to cross 40 degree Celsius — a rare occurrence in the early 1970s.

The study was carried out by Climate Central, a US-based independent group of scientists and communicators. Researchers examined daily temperatures from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2023, for the study.

The findings

The study found that during March, the northern and western regions of India have warmed up the most, relative to 1970 levels. Jammu and Kashmir showed the greatest increase in average temperature of around 2.8 degree Celsius. For the month of April, warming has been more uniform across India, with Mizoram reporting the greatest increase of roughly 1.9 degree Celsius since 1970.

Credit: Climate Central

Focussing on temperatures around Holi, the study observed that in the early 1970s, only three states — Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Bihar — had more than a 5% chance of witnessing temperatures above 40 degree Celsius in late March. Currently, this number has shot up to include nine states — including the three original states, and Rajasthan, Gujarat, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh — with Maharashtra reporting a whopping 14% probability.

Credit: Climate Central

The researchers also examined 51 cities across India, and found that 37 of them — almost 73% — now have at least a 1% chance of experiencing 40 degree Celsius or warmer temperatures, and 11 have a 10% or greater probability. Bilaspur now has the highest risk (31%) of crossing 40 degrees, 2.5 times higher than in the 1970s.

The findings show that India has been witnessing “an abrupt transition in the temperatures from cool winter-like temperatures to much warmer conditions now,” according to Dr Andrew Pershing, VP for Science, Climate Central. “After the strong warming trend observed in February, March is also likely to follow the same pattern,” he said.

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What’s behind warmer temperatures?

The primary reason behind a warmer March and April is global warming. The unprecedented release of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has led to a spike in global temperatures. While the annual mean temperature of the world has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius from the average of the 1850-1900 period, the annual mean temperature over the Indian subcontinent has risen by 0.7 degree Celsius from 1900.

Dr Akshay Deoras, Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK 5, said: “Global warming is favouring an early arrival of the hot weather season in India. The concentration of greenhouse gases, which is responsible for global warming, is much larger at present compared to what it was in the 1970s.”

“This is turning the planet into a furnace, and Indian hilly states are facing the brunt of it in particular. Given that Holi is an outdoor festival, the early onset of hot weather increases the vulnerability to heat related illness,” he added.