India on Wednesday (March 25) revealed its climate targets for 2035, promising to make further progress on cutting the carbon intensity of its economy, expanding the deployment of renewable energy and creating carbon sinks from forests and trees.
India said it would ensure that at least 60% of its electricity installed capacity in 2035 was based on non-fossil fuel sources, up from the 50% target it had set for 2030. It has promised to attain at least a 47% reduction in emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP, on 2005 levels, which is two percentage points more than its current target of 45% for 2030. And, it has promised to create a carbon sink that is at least 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent larger than what existed in 2005.
Each of the new targets marks a progression over existing commitments for 2030, a mandatory requirement under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Under this 2015 pact, every country is obligated to decide upon, and implement, a set of climate actions that help the global fight against climate change. These are referred to as nationally-determined contributions, or NDCs— emphasising the fact that countries themselves decide the nature and scale of climate actions.
India’s NDCs on climate.
The signals from India
On the face of it, India’s new climate targets seem to be only a slight enhancement over its existing 2030 commitments, which it is on course to achieve well ahead of time. The renewable energy target has already been met and the other two might also be close to being achieved once fresh data on those indicators are available.
However, India’s reaffirmation of the clean energy pathway it has chosen for itself is extremely important in the current global situation in which countries are being forced to reevaluate their policy options regarding energy, economy and security.
The chain of events triggered by Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the US has resulted in a serious erosion in global efforts on climate change. These events have not just slowed down progress on climate, but threaten to reverse the momentum that was building on the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy.
The US under Trump has abandoned renewables and is reinvesting money and efforts towards developing and controlling oil and gas resources.
Such a reversal by the world’s second largest producer and consumer of energy has had major consequences. Washington’s pursuit of greater control over the world’s oil and gas resources, as reflected in its actions in Venezuela, and the war in West Asia have unnerved several countries, forcing them to make renewed attempts to secure their own oil and gas supply chains.
In this backdrop, India, the world’s third biggest emitter and the third largest consumer of energy, has signalled that it remains committed to the clean energy pathway and enhanced climate action.
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell acknowledged the significance of India’s new climate targets.
“The signals in this announcement from one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies could not be more crucial, at a time when the soaring costs of dependence on volatile fossil fuels are becoming painfully clear, undermining national security and sovereignty around the world, driving up prices, and leaving people short of food and fuel. By contrast, renewable energy is not at the mercy of narrow shipping straits or huge naval escorts,” he said, referring to the US-Israeli war on Iran that has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The UN official said that India’s new climate plan would deepen its economic advantage.
Disappointment with international finance
Considering the progress it has already made on its existing commitments, India, perhaps, was in a position to make bigger enhancements to its 2035 targets.
For example, a recently released document by the Central Electricity Authority projected that the share of non-fossil fuel sources in the electricity generation capacity could go from the current 52% to 70% by 2035. India, however, has set a target of only 60% in its NDC for 2035. This shows that the country would be willing to do more only whenever it can, and not want to be constrained by international commitments that have to be made in advance.
One of the reasons for India not aiming higher in its 2035 targets, despite seemingly being in a position to do so, could have something to do with its disappointment over the failure of the developed countries to make more money available for climate action.
India has been extremely unhappy with the outcome of the climate finance negotiations in Baku in 2024, where the developed countries only agreed to raise about $300 billion a year for the developing countries, and only from 2035. The developing countries had been demanding that at least $1.3 trillion a year be made available for them to finance their climate actions.
India has been consistently highlighting this issue at international forums. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil last year, it managed to force through a decision on the creation of a two-year work programme to discuss all climate finance issues.
India has also been arguing that the lack of adequate money would compel countries such as itself to scale down the ambition of their climate actions. In fact, an Indian official had told The Indian Express that India’s 2035 climate targets would very likely “reflect the disappointment of the climate finance outcome at COP29 in Baku”.
As a result, finding low-cost, long-term finance — both from domestic as well as international sources — for green investments has been identified as one of the core objectives in India’s 2035 climate plan.
With the relatively modest upgrade in targets, India also seems to be reiterating its position that while it remains fully committed to climate action, it would not allow international pressure to dictate the pace of those actions. India’s 2035 NDC, which is yet to be published and submitted to UN Climate Change, is expected to have a strong emphasis on adaptation actions.
India said it would ensure that at least 60% of its electricity installed capacity in 2035 was based on non-fossil fuel sources. (Express file)
India’s NDCs on climate.
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