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What is driving the early summer and heat-wave conditions in north India?
North India Heatwave: While a similar situation was witnessed in February three years ago, such an early arrival of heat is rare.
North India Heatwave:
A state like Himachal Pradesh has already experienced temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius.
IMD Heatwave Warning: In several regions of India, particularly in the north and west, the cool winter days of February were suddenly replaced by unusually warm days this month. Temperatures were 8 to 13 degrees Celsius above normal, which can be classified as heat-wave conditions.
While a similar situation was witnessed in February three years ago, such an early arrival of heat is rare.
A warmer March
In its March forecast, the IMD said that day temperatures over western Himalayan regions and peninsular and central India would remain ‘above’ normal. It also warned of ‘above’ normal heatwave days in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Both scenarios were realised within the very first week of March.
A state like Himachal Pradesh has already experienced temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius. “The probability of the maximum temperatures over Shimla rising above 25 degrees Celsius is negligible, and definitely not in March. Summer over Shimla peaks in May and early June, but heatwaves are uncommon,” said an IMD official.
A similar situation prevailed in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh last week. “The temperatures are quite high and will remain for another 2 to 3 days. The incoming western disturbance will bring down these temperatures,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD. Western Disturbances are east-moving rain-bearing wind systems that originate beyond Iran, and pick up moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and other water bodies. They are common in winter months.
Dry winter
The unusual weather can be partially attributed to a relatively dry winter. February was the third driest since 1901 — a direct effect of the lack of favourable weather systems. All-India rainfall in January and February was just 16 mm, or 60% below normal. Both snowfall and rainfall were subdued.
This was due to a lack of adequate Western disturbances from November 2025. The wind system had caused the bulk of the winter rains. Additionally, meteorologists observed no wind convergence in the westerly and easterly winds, which bring moisture from the seas to central and north India.
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Dry winters are generally associated with an early onset of hot summer days because a lack of rain hastily heats up the soil. When soil is moist, the onset of summer sees some moisture evaporate first, but with little or no rain, the dry land heats faster, raising overall temperatures.
Crops feel the heat
The immediate impact of the sudden spike in temperatures would be on the standing rabi crops.
Mustard, wheat, gram, groundnut, sesame, sorghum, safflower, in addition to vegetables like potato and fruits like apples, will need additional care. Farmers have been advised to deploy frequent irrigation to maintain soil moisture levels.
However, this could further stress local water resources.
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