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Fact Check: Tracking the coronavirus curve in India

India is talking about the recent spurt in cases, but how sharp has it been? Data from day to day, plotted in these graphs, show how and when the growth changed from occasional to a trickle to exponential.

<a href="https://images.indianexpress.com/2020/04/all-india-covid-19-cases.jpg&quot; rel="nofollow"><img class="wp-image-6353855 size-full" src="https://images.indianexpress.com/2020/04/all-india-covid-19-cases.jpg&quot; alt="Explained: Tracking the coronavirus curve in India" width="759" height="386" srcset="https://images.indianexpress.com/2020/04/all-india-covid-19-cases.jpg 759w, https://images.indianexpress.com/2020/04/all-india-covid-19-cases.jpg?resize=450,229 450w, https://images.indianexpress.com/2020/04/all-india-covid-19-cases.jpg?resize=600,305 600w, https://images.indianexpress.com/2020/04/all-india-covid-19-cases.jpg?resize=728,370 728w" sizes="(max-width: 759px) 100vw, 759px" /></a> Coronavirus curve in India: The number of coronavirus cases in India has been growing exponentially.

The first three cases of novel coronavirus infection in India happened on January 29, and none thereafter for the next more than one month. Fresh cases began to emerge in the first week of March but for more than two weeks, it came in trickles, even as many other parts of the world were battling with the emergence of thousands of cases every day.

In the last few days, however, the growth of numbers in India has begun to prominently resemble what is so characteristic of the spread of an infectious disease — an exponential curve. If we ignore the first three cases in Kerala and January, it took India 13 days after the emergence of a fresh case on March 2 to cross the 100 mark. Over the next 14 days, India had more than 1,000 cases. By April 7, or in another nine days, the numbers had crossed the 5,000 mark, and at this rate, India is on route to touch 10,000 cases in about a week.

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Coronavirus curve in India: The number of coronavirus cases in top seven states. Maharashtra has seen the highest COVID-19 infections in India (1,108), followed by Tamil Nadu (690) and Delhi (567).

The growth has been different in different states. While Maharashtra, Telangana, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and UP have been seeing an exponential rate of growth, many other states are adding numbers in linear fashion.

Coronavirus curve in India: Maharashtra accounts for more than one-third of the country’s 167 deaths due to COVID-19 until April 7.

Here, the charts show day-by-day growth at national level, as well as selected individual states with large caseloads. We also present the daily increase in deaths because of the disease. These numbers have been sourced in-house from daily reports from the states. As such, they are likely to be a little different from the official numbers put out by the Health Ministry, or several other publicly available databases. However, the overall trend is not very different. Some deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 a few days after the actual demise because the test results arrive late. For convenience, we have included the deaths on the dates on which they were announced. There are other sources of discrepancy as well. The West Bengal government, for example, has maintained that some of the deaths reported in the state could not be attributed to COVID-19, and a committee is looking into some of these. In this database, we have included all those as deaths of people positive for COVID-19.

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Coronavirus curve in India: The deaths in other states.

The R0, or reproduction numbers representing how many people one positive case can infect, in the graphs are as calculated by IIIT Delhi researchers.

Coronavirus curve in India: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi account for the highest cases in India. Coronavirus curve in India: Telangana has seen 393 cases, Rajasthan 343 and Kerala 336. Coronavirus curve in India: Punjab and West Bengal had 99 cases as of April 7, while Jammu and Kashmir had 125. Coronavirus curve in India: Haryana cases were at 129, Gujarat at 176 and Karnataka at 175. Coronavirus curve in India: There are 332 cases in Uttar Pradesh, 304 in Andhra Pradesh and 290 in Madhya Pradesh. Coronavirus curve in India: Assam, Uttarakhand and Bihar have seen less than 50 COVID-19 cases.

Data inputs: Karishma Mehrotra; Editing: Kabir Firaque; Graphics: Mithun  Chakraborty and Ritesh Kumar

Here’s a quick Coronavirus guide from Express Explained to keep you updated: What can cause a COVID-19 patient to relapse after recovery? | COVID-19 lockdown has cleaned up the air, but this may not be good news. Here’s why | Can alternative medicine work against the coronavirus? | A five-minute test for COVID-19 has been readied, India may get it too | How India is building up defence during lockdown | Why only a fraction of those with coronavirus suffer acutely | How do healthcare workers protect themselves from getting infected? | What does it take to set up isolation wards?

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