The first three cases of novel coronavirus infection in India happened on January 29, and none thereafter for the next more than one month. Fresh cases began to emerge in the first week of March but for more than two weeks, it came in trickles, even as many other parts of the world were battling with the emergence of thousands of cases every day.
In the last few days, however, the growth of numbers in India has begun to prominently resemble what is so characteristic of the spread of an infectious disease — an exponential curve. If we ignore the first three cases in Kerala and January, it took India 13 days after the emergence of a fresh case on March 2 to cross the 100 mark. Over the next 14 days, India had more than 1,000 cases. By April 7, or in another nine days, the numbers had crossed the 5,000 mark, and at this rate, India is on route to touch 10,000 cases in about a week.
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The growth has been different in different states. While Maharashtra, Telangana, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and UP have been seeing an exponential rate of growth, many other states are adding numbers in linear fashion.
Here, the charts show day-by-day growth at national level, as well as selected individual states with large caseloads. We also present the daily increase in deaths because of the disease. These numbers have been sourced in-house from daily reports from the states. As such, they are likely to be a little different from the official numbers put out by the Health Ministry, or several other publicly available databases. However, the overall trend is not very different. Some deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 a few days after the actual demise because the test results arrive late. For convenience, we have included the deaths on the dates on which they were announced. There are other sources of discrepancy as well. The West Bengal government, for example, has maintained that some of the deaths reported in the state could not be attributed to COVID-19, and a committee is looking into some of these. In this database, we have included all those as deaths of people positive for COVID-19.
The R0, or reproduction numbers representing how many people one positive case can infect, in the graphs are as calculated by IIIT Delhi researchers.
Data inputs: Karishma Mehrotra; Editing: Kabir Firaque; Graphics: Mithun Chakraborty and Ritesh Kumar
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