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India coronavirus numbers explained: Why Karnataka seems to be slowing down

India Coronavirus Cases: Till three days ago, Karnataka was still the country’s fastest-growing state. That position has now been ceded to Andhra Pradesh, whose growth rate is still on the ascendant.

Written by Amitabh Sinha , Edited by Explained Desk | Pune |
Updated: July 26, 2020 8:39:24 am
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India Coronavirus Cases: It might still be early days, but it seems the growth rate of novel Coronavirus cases in Karnataka has started to fall, following a trajectory that some other high-growth states have taken before it. Since June, these other states — Delhi, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana — have had relatively short phases of very rapid growth, before they began to slow down, and their daily new infections seem to have become much more stable now.

Karnataka also seems to be following a similar trajectory. Its daily growth rate had reached as high as 8.82 per cent on July 4, but has started to steadily come down after that. In terms of number of cases, however, the high has come only two days ago, when the state reported over 4,500 new cases.

Till three days ago, Karnataka was still the country’s fastest-growing state. That position has now been ceded to Andhra Pradesh, whose growth rate is still on the ascendant. Its case numbers are currently growing at 8.12 per cent per day (7-day compounded daily growth rate), compared to just about 5.7 per cent at the start of the month. It is too early to say whether the curve will begin to decline after a few days, as it has in the case of other states, or it will have a prolonged high-growth phase.

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Rise and fall of growth rates in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi

At least in three of the states — Delhi, Telangana and Karnataka — the surge could be partially attributed to rapid increase in testing, and more focused efforts at contact-tracing and targeted testing of suspect cases.

On Monday, the daily number of new cases reported by Delhi fell below 1,000 for the first time after June 1, continuing a remarkable turnaround after reaching a peak of about 4,000 cases on June 23. It had 954 new infections on Monday, even less than the 990 it had reported on June 1. The city now has 1.23 lakh people who have tested positive for the novel Coronavirus, but in the last one week it has added just 10,000 new cases compared to over 57,000 by Maharashtra, and more than 32,000 by Tamil Nadu, the two other states that have more than one lakh cases.

Telangana too is showing a lot of promise in terms of slowing down, though its reversal is much more recent, and thus less stable.

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Top ten states with maximum caseload

STATE TOTAL POSITIVE NEW CASES TOTAL RECOVERIES DEATHS

 

Maharashtra 318,695 8,240 175,029 12,030
Tamil Nadu 175,678 4,985 121,776 2,551
Delhi 123,747 954 104,918 3,663
Karnataka 67,420 3,648 23,795 1,409
Andhra Pradesh 53,724 4,074 24,228 696
Uttar Pradesh 51,160 1,913 30,931 1,192
Gujarat 49,439 998 35,659 2,167
Telangana 46,274 1,198 34,323 422
West Bengal 44,769 2,282 26,418 1,147
Rajasthan 30,268 951 22,080 568

Tamil Nadu looks much more stable. The state’s daily case numbers have remained enclosed within the 3,500 to 5,000 bracket since the start of this month. With the kind of caseload it has, over 1.75 lakh, that gives it a relatively slow growth rate of three per cent.

A few other states seem to be getting ready to challenge Andhra Pradesh’s position as the fastest-growing state. Amongst them, Uttar Pradesh has the highest total caseload, having over 51,000 infected cases, but the lowest growth rate right now, 4.29 per cent. Bihar has the lowest caseload, less than 28,000, but a growth rate that is just below 7 per cent now. The state has seen its total number of cases increase by almost three times since the start of this month.

West Bengal, another state to watch out for, is nearing 45,000 cases, and also growing at over 5.7 per cent every day.

A total of 11.55 lakh people have so far been infected with the virus in India, out of which 7.24 lakh have recovered.

Any of these three states could be the one to take the baton from Andhra Pradesh. Kerala is also growing at great speeds now, at a rate of about 6.9 per cent per day, but its total caseload is still relatively small, having crossed 13,000 on Monday.

Just over 37,000 new cases were detected across the country on Monday, down from more than 40,000 the previous day. A total of 11.55 lakh people have so far been infected with the virus in India, out of which 7.24 lakh have recovered. The death toll has crossed 28,000.

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