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India coronavirus numbers explained: How last week the growth rate slowed

India Coronavirus Cases Numbers: The seven-day compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) had started to increase in the previous week, but in the last three days, it has come down, and on Wednesday it had fallen to 3.57 per cent, the lowest ever.

Written by Amitabh Sinha , Edited by Explained Desk | Pune | Published: July 2, 2020 12:32:44 pm
Sanitization in a containment zone at Reghar Pura in New Delhi (Express photo/Praveen Khanna)

India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases Numbers: It might appear counter-intuitive, but even in the last one week when more than one lakh new cases of novel Coronavirus infections were detected in the country, the growth rate has actually gone down. The seven-day compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) had started to increase in the previous week, but in the last three days, it has come down, and on Wednesday it had fallen to 3.57 per cent, the lowest ever.

As a result, the doubling time for cases, which had come under 20 days on June 21, has once again has gone beyond 20 days now.

For the last six days, the number of new cases being discovered has ranged between 18,000 and 20,000. On Wednesday, this number was 19,148, which took India’s total caseload beyond six lakh. India now has 6.04 lakh cases, of which 3.59 lakh have already recovered from the disease.

For the last six days, the number of new cases being discovered has ranged between 18,000 and 20,000.

Only 11 states and union territories currently have a 7-day CDGR greater than the national growth rate. These included the states with relatively smaller caseloads like Goa, Manipur, Puducherry, Nagaland, Daman and Diu, and Andaman Islands. That leaves just five states – Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Assam — that have big caseloads and also high growth rates.

Even Delhi fell below the national growth rate on Wednesday. The national capital had been adding a large number of cases in the previous week, touching almost four thousand new infections on June 23, but the numbers have gone down consistently after that. On Wednesday, 2,442 new cases were found in Delhi.

Also read | Five of top 10 states report highest single-day Covid-19 figure

Top ten states with maximum caseload

STATE TOTAL POSITIVE NEW CASES TOTAL RECOVERIES DEATHS

 

Maharashtra 180,298 5,537 93,154 8,053
Tamil Nadu 94,049 3,882 52,926 1,264
Delhi 89,802 2,442 59,992 2,803
Gujarat 33,318 872 24,038 1,869
Uttar Pradesh 24,056 564 16,629 718
West Bengal 19,170 611 12,528 683
Rajasthan 18,197 298 14,461 421
Telangana 17,357 1,018 8,082 267
Karnataka 16,514 1,272 8,063 257
Andhra Pradesh 15,252 657 6,988 193

Tamil Nadu, in the meanwhile, has started reporting new infections in the range of 3,500 to 4,000 daily. Two days ago, it also overtook Delhi in the total number of cases. The state now has just over 94,000 cases.

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The two states which have recently started growing at a fast pace are Telangana and Karnataka. Both of them are currently growing at more than 7 per cent, the highest in the country apart from Assam. Both have also moved into the top ten list of states with highest caseloads in the country. But compared to states like Maharashtra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, their daily contribution of new infections is still low, in the range of 1,200 to 1,500.

There has been a significant rise in the number of deaths that are being reported every day. For the last two weeks now, about 400, or more, deaths are being reported, the most from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi and Tamil Nadu. However, since there is a considerable time lag in reporting deaths, so all these deaths are not happening on the same day. With many states also referring these deaths to expert audit committees to assess the exact cause of death, reporting some time takes up to a week or even more.

On Wednesday, 434 deaths were reported, while 507 deaths were reported the day earlier. So far, 17,834 people are reported to have died in India due to Coronavirus-related complications. Nearly half of these, 8053, has happened in Maharashtra. Delhi has the next highest number, followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

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