India coronavirus numbers explained: How last week the growth rate slowed

Sanitization in a containment zone at Reghar Pura in New Delhi (Express photo/Praveen Khanna)

India Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases Numbers: It might appear counter-intuitive, but even in the last one week when more than one lakh new cases of novel Coronavirus infections were detected in the country, the growth rate has actually gone down. The seven-day compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) had started to increase in the previous week, but in the last three days, it has come down, and on Wednesday it had fallen to 3.57 per cent, the lowest ever.

As a result, the doubling time for cases, which had come under 20 days on June 21, has once again has gone beyond 20 days now.

For the last six days, the number of new cases being discovered has ranged between 18,000 and 20,000. On Wednesday, this number was 19,148, which took India’s total caseload beyond six lakh. India now has 6.04 lakh cases, of which 3.59 lakh have already recovered from the disease.

For the last six days, the number of new cases being discovered has ranged between 18,000 and 20,000.

Only 11 states and union territories currently have a 7-day CDGR greater than the national growth rate. These included the states with relatively smaller caseloads like Goa, Manipur, Puducherry, Nagaland, Daman and Diu, and Andaman Islands. That leaves just five states – Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Assam — that have big caseloads and also high growth rates.

Even Delhi fell below the national growth rate on Wednesday. The national capital had been adding a large number of cases in the previous week, touching almost four thousand new infections on June 23, but the numbers have gone down consistently after that. On Wednesday, 2,442 new cases were found in Delhi.

Also read | Five of top 10 states report highest single-day Covid-19 figure

Top ten states with maximum caseload

STATE	TOTAL POSITIVE	NEW CASES	TOTAL RECOVERIES	DEATHS
Maharashtra	180,298	5,537	93,154	8,053
Tamil Nadu	94,049	3,882	52,926	1,264
Delhi	89,802	2,442	59,992	2,803
Gujarat	33,318	872	24,038	1,869
Uttar Pradesh	24,056	564	16,629	718
West Bengal	19,170	611	12,528	683
Rajasthan	18,197	298	14,461	421
Telangana	17,357	1,018	8,082	267
Karnataka	16,514	1,272	8,063	257
Andhra Pradesh	15,252	657	6,988	193

Tamil Nadu, in the meanwhile, has started reporting new infections in the range of 3,500 to 4,000 daily. Two days ago, it also overtook Delhi in the total number of cases. The state now has just over 94,000 cases.

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The two states which have recently started growing at a fast pace are Telangana and Karnataka. Both of them are currently growing at more than 7 per cent, the highest in the country apart from Assam. Both have also moved into the top ten list of states with highest caseloads in the country. But compared to states like Maharashtra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, their daily contribution of new infections is still low, in the range of 1,200 to 1,500.

There has been a significant rise in the number of deaths that are being reported every day. For the last two weeks now, about 400, or more, deaths are being reported, the most from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi and Tamil Nadu. However, since there is a considerable time lag in reporting deaths, so all these deaths are not happening on the same day. With many states also referring these deaths to expert audit committees to assess the exact cause of death, reporting some time takes up to a week or even more.

On Wednesday, 434 deaths were reported, while 507 deaths were reported the day earlier. So far, 17,834 people are reported to have died in India due to Coronavirus-related complications. Nearly half of these, 8053, has happened in Maharashtra. Delhi has the next highest number, followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

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