BRICS summit: What trajectory of China-India ties means for the grouping

Twenty-five years later, their trajectory has been quite varied. China has surged ahead to become the second-largest economy after the US; India has grown at a modest rate but has been outpaced by Beijing by a mile, Russia has faced challenges due to wars of its own making, and Brazil has floundered amid frequent regime changes and scandals. South Africa, a later entrant to the grouping, has also not lived up to expectations.

Since 2009, when the first BRICS leaders’ summit took place in the shadow of the global financial crisis, China has also emerged stronger after weathering the financial crisis better than many Western nations. 

Increasing assertions

Apart from its economic rise, China has also grown militarily, with big-power ambitions to dethrone the US. These aspirations are visible in its increasingly aggressive and assertive stance in its neighbourhood, in its actions in the South China Sea, the Indo-Pacific, and the borders it shares with India.

India has faced the brunt of border standoffs frequently, but under Xi, a sense of belligerence from the Chinese state has been greater than at any time in the recent past.

Years of diplomatic and military-level talks led to a disengagement of troops in 2024, and incremental steps have since been taken to stabilise the relationship. These include resumption of direct flights, easing visa restrictions, restarting the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and relaxing restrictions on Chinese investments.

But significant structural differences remain, such as the massive trade deficit, with the lack of market access for Indian businesses often flagged as an issue. India, too, is acting against Chinese firms for tax evasion. 

Crucially, strategic and political trust has been diminished over the border standoff, now in its seventh year. The collusion between China and Pakistan during the India-Pakistan military hostilities under Operation Sindoor has further exacerbated the crisis of trust and credibility.

What it means for BRICS

The BRICS summit, with leaders of over 30 countries and groupings in attendance, is being held against this backdrop. 

What has complicated the picture is the US government’s actions under President Donald Trump in the last one-and-a-half years. His arbitrary tariff moves have cornered countries around the world, including China and India, and the two nations now find themselves on the same side in attempting to counter its effects. After years of high economic growth, China has also revised its expectations for the near future. 

Additionally, Trump’s war on Iran has raised questions of powerful nations violating others’ territorial integrity and sovereignty. But then, both China and Russia are guilty of the same in their respective neighbourhoods.

Still, the war in West Asia has imposed an economic cost on all countries. Energy prices and inflation have risen, and BRICS countries, as part of the Global South, are naturally bearing the brunt.

The question now is whether a moment of shared interests and concerns between India and China can become an opportunity to improve ties and bring other developing countries on the same page on common concerns. Xi’s visit is being seen as a positive signal, but only to a degree.

BRICS has the potential to offer areas for cooperation, but so far in its approach, Beijing has viewed itself as the “first among equals” in the grouping. It has long supported expanding BRICS membership from the original five, aiding the 2023 expansion that led the grouping to reach its current strength of 11 members.

Then there is the fact that China and Russia have attempted to frame BRICS as an “anti-West” grouping, while India sees it as a “non-Western” grouping. These divergent perspectives are complicated by US actions against fellow members, such as tariffs on Brazil and political disagreements with South Africa, which have not made things easy for Delhi.

India, which has built robust ties with the US over the last 25 years and is wooing Europe, Australia, Canada, and other Western nations for closer partnerships, is decidedly not “anti-West”. It recognises the need to turn to the West for access to capital, technology and as a destination for its people more than China or Russia.

In this geopolitical environment, compared to China’s framing of BRICS, India is hosting the summit also to signal to the US that it has other partners in fields ranging from technology to fuel security. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been investing in the Indian economy, while Russia has stepped in as an energy supplier amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brazil is ready to partner on critical minerals. 

Again, the war has polarised members of the grouping — Iran is attacking US military bases in West Asia, while the UAE is hosting several military bases and personnel. That is where India needs China’s might to move the two partners towards cooperation and demonstrate a more unified flank. Whether they can come to a consensus on such matters, and agree to build on the gains made so far, will affect not just their ties but also BRICS’ efficacy as a grouping.