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Assembly Election Results 2022 Explained: Punjab shifts from traditional parties, picks AAP

Election Results 2022 Explained, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand (UK), Manipur, Goa, Punjab Elections 2022 Results Explained: Here's an analysis and explanation of the Assembly election results.

Four of the five states that went to polls voted the BJP to power, while the Aam Aadmi Party swept Punjab.

Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand (UK), Manipur, Goa, Punjab Assembly Election Results 2022 Live News Explained: Four of the five states that went to polls voted the BJP to power, while the Aam Aadmi Party swept Punjab.

What are some of the reasons behind the BJP’s win in the key state of Uttar Pradesh? What does this mean for the Samajwadi Party, Congress and BSP in the state? With AAP making history in Punjab, is this the dawn of Arvind Kejriwal as a national leader? And, has the Congress self-destructed? Here’s an analysis and explanation of the Assembly election results.

Also read Election Results | Uttar Pradesh results | Punjab results | Uttarakhand results | Manipur results | Goa results

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Assembly Elections 2022 Explained: Here's an analysis and explanation of the Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa poll results.

22:31 (IST)11 Mar 2022
What the 2022 Assembly election results mean for states, Centre

Uttar Pradesh: Yogi prevails in bipolar contest
Bipolar fight: It was clear from the beginning that the election would be between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath targeting the SP and Akhilesh Yadav by referring to “mafiawaad”, “gundagardi by laal topiwalahs”, and “appeasement of one community” (Muslims). As the results show, voters too made their choice between the BJP and the SP (or their respective allies), largely ignoring the BSP and the Congress.

Security & Hindutva: Many voters were convinced that it was necessary to bring the incumbent government back to power solely on the issue of law and order, their argument being that no government can remove problems like inflation and unemployment completely. Adityanath’s comments like “garmi thanda kar doonga” or “bulldozer chalega” were widely seen as references to operations on criminals. (Read More)

14:26 (IST)11 Mar 2022
In its worst crisis ever, where does Congress go from here?

It is premature to write the epitaph of a party as old as the Congress, which still has a pan-Indian footprint. But the resounding rejection of the party in the Assembly elections poses the worst crisis it has ever faced, as well as the big question: where does it go from here?

The Congress was in power in just three states – Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Mizoram – when Sonia Gandhi took over as Congress president in 1998. From there, it won state after state, returning to power at the Centre in 2004. In 2014, it was in power in nine states. Today, the Congress is worse off than it was 24 years ago — it is ruling in only two states, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. So, what now? Manoj C G writes

13:18 (IST)11 Mar 2022
The road ahead: BJP reads signals for 2024, looks at areas, strategies to work on

Emboldened by its victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur, the BJP has begun strategising for the next elections, claiming that it starts planning for the next on the same night that the results for one come out.

With the results being widely seen as an endorsement to the BJP’s welfare politics — various schemes and an effective delivery system, cutting across caste and religious lines — party sources said they would focus on consolidating its new “vote bank” of “women and beneficiaries of welfare schemes” to consolidate them further. Read Liz Mathew's report 

12:27 (IST)11 Mar 2022
Mandal is falling stock, Mandir-plus a blue chip

The wheels of Mandal turn slower and slower. One of the key takeaways from the BJP’s victories in four states, and particularly in the crucial battleground of Uttar Pradesh, is this: Of the two ambitious political projects that were launched almost simultaneously in the politically turbulent 1990s, Mandal and Mandir, while the second is on its way towards achieving its aim of forging a national community that transcends faultlines of caste, class and region, the first has fragmented, its egalitarian charge more and more dissipated. Read more from Vandita Misra's report

11:29 (IST)11 Mar 2022
Is AAP on its way to becoming a national party? Not yet

With the stage set for the AAP to form a government in another state — the only regional party to be in power in two states — and its footprint, and ambition, growing, questions are now being raised about whether AAP can claim to be a national party?

The answer to that is: not yet. But the state party is well on its way to becoming a national party in the coming years if it meets Election Commission’s criteria. Anisha Dutta explains

11:05 (IST)11 Mar 2022
Manipur Assembly Election Results 2022 Explained: Why the BJP prevailed
Chief Minister N. Biren Singh gestures after the party's victory in Assembly polls, outside of his residence, in Imphal, Thursday, March 10, 2022. (PTI)

BJP's poll planks for peace, development, stability — a stark contrast to the tumultuous 15-year Congress regime under the Okram Ibobi Singh, which was marked by bandhs, blockades and a sharp rise in extra-judicial killings — seem to have struck a chord with voters. Tora Agarwala explains

10:39 (IST)11 Mar 2022
Goa Assembly Election Results 2022 Explained: BJP makes candidates count
Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant flashes the victory sign as BJP leads, during counting day of Goa elections, in Panaji, Thursday, March 10, 2022. (PTI)

The BJP’s emphasis on winnability of candidates seems to have worked. It faced criticism for giving tickets to two couples, choosing defectors over its loyal cadre, but emerged as the single largest party. Mayura Janwalkar explains the Goa results

10:11 (IST)11 Mar 2022
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Results 2022 Explained: Congress effort not enough
BJP leaders Pralhad Joshi, Pushkar Singh Dhami, Kailash Vijayvargiya and others celebrate the party's win in Uttarakhand Assembly polls, in Dehradun, Thursday, March 10, 2022. (PTI Photo)

Although the Congress appeared to have ticked all the right boxes in terms of managing infighting within the party and making sound electoral promises, its dwindling presence at the national level may have worked against it in Uttarakhand. Avaneesh Mishra explains what helped the BJP win Uttarakhand

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09:43 (IST)11 Mar 2022
Punjab Assembly Election Results 2022 Explained: Shift from traditional parties
AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal and senior leader Manish Sisodia celebrate at the party's office in New Delhi on Thursday. (Express Photo: Amit Mehra)

What helped the AAP sweep Punjab? The state, which has been seeing a decline in its per capita income over the last two decades, has largely voted for the Delhi model of development promised by AAP. The discerning voter now wants a party that can promise him quality education, health and employment, not mere freebies. Manraj Grewal Sharma writes

09:28 (IST)11 Mar 2022
UP Assembly Election Results 2022 Explained: Yogi prevails in bipolar contest
Supporters celebrate at the BJP HQ in New Delhi on Thursday. (Express Photo: Tashi Tobgyal)

As the results show, voters too made their choice between the BJP and the SP (or their respective allies), largely ignoring the BSP and the Congress.

Many voters were convinced that it was necessary to bring the incumbent government back to power solely on the issue of law and order, their argument being that no government can remove problems like inflation and unemployment completely. Adityanath’s comments like “garmi thanda kar doonga” or “bulldozer chalega” were widely seen as references to operations on criminals. Bhupendra Pandey explains what helped the BJP in UP

19:27 (IST)10 Mar 2022
Five reasons why the BJP won UP

Law and order: Despite criticism of rights violation, the UP government was able to successfully project its crackdown on the mafia and the killing of criminals in police encounters as a sign of better law and order. In poll rallies, CM Adityanath and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have claimed a sharp drop in crimes such as murders, kidnapping and rapes over the past five years.

Welfare schemes: The free ration scheme of the Central and state governments was a gamechanger for the BJP as families struggled through a pandemic that led to the loss of lives and jobs. Besides the ration, other schemes such as the PM Kisan Nidhi, where money was transferred to the bank accounts of farmers, helped the BJP blunt anti-incumbency against it. (Read More)

17:50 (IST)10 Mar 2022
Opinion | P B Mehta writes: The revolution marches on

The results of the five assembly elections are a further consolidation of the momentous changes in Indian politics over the last decade. The results in UP are a spectacular win for the BJP, consolidating its power and ideological hegemony over Indian politics. It sends a plain and simple message: Politics, in the end, is a game of competitive credibility and the BJP simply has no competition. Read opinion piece by P B Mehta

17:48 (IST)10 Mar 2022
AAP on its way to becoming a national party? Not yet

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is the only big winner apart from the BJP this election, with the party, going by trends, set to form the government in Punjab with a lead in 91 seats and opening its account in Goa with two seats and a vote share of 6%. Can AAP claim to be a national party now? Anisha Dutta explains

16:04 (IST)10 Mar 2022
Explained: How BJP retained Uttarakhand

Based on the trends it appears that even after Congress made promises like cheaper LPG cylinders, jobs, monetary help to poor families and better health facilities, the voters voted more on issues like national interest, national security, Army welfare, and religious tourism. This was among the reasons why BJP retained Uttarakhand. Read our explainer here

15:37 (IST)10 Mar 2022
Five reasons behind Congress’ defeat in Uttarakhand

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to retain power in Uttarakhand, with its candidates leading in 48 out of 70 assembly seats. The Congress is ahead in 18 seats. It will be for the first time in the state’s history that a ruling power will be returning to power for a second consecutive term. Here are the five reasons behind the Congress’ defeat in the state.

15:00 (IST)10 Mar 2022
Explained: Why the BJP prevailed in Manipur

Why has the BJP prevailed in Manipur? Read our explainer here

13:59 (IST)10 Mar 2022
What's behind Congress's defeat in Uttarakhand?

Based on trends, it appears that even after the Congress made promises like cheaper LPG cylinders, jobs, monetary help to poor families and better health facilities, voters in Uttarakhand have opted for issues of national interest, national security, army welfare, and religious tourism.

Despite the party ticking the right boxes, did its national image dilute its chances in the state? During the campaign, the BJP pulled outs its big guns, with PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, party president J P Nadda, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and even Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath holding rallies in the state. However, Congress leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra were relatively absent.

The image of the BJP being a pro-Army party and a party that can promote religious tourism appeared to help it in the state, which sees huge participation in the Army, and relies mostly on religious tourism. ~ Avaneesh Mishra explains

13:43 (IST)10 Mar 2022
First woman Dalit CM, Maya stares at lowest point, BSP plunges

The first Dalit woman chief minister of the country, Mayawati is set to hit her lowest point in Uttar Pradesh politics. A teacher-turned-politician from Badalpur village of Gautam Budh Nagar district of Uttar Pradesh, 66-year-old BSP chief Mayawati, referred to popularly as “Behenji”, first became CM in June 1995. Though her first government could survive only a few months, over the years that followed, as Uttar Pradesh failed to vote in a government with complete majority, not just once but three times Mayawati became CM with the help of the BJP, until she led the BSP to a complete majority in 2007. She has thus served as UP CM four times.

Before the results, BSP insiders insisted Mayawati was preparing for a “larger” role now and was focused on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. That she has also put in in-charges for different states. However, Thursday’s result might have put paid to that. Maulshree Seth writes

13:16 (IST)10 Mar 2022
How AAP's Punjab win heralds a tectonic shift in Indian politics

The Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is cruising to victory in Punjab by steamrolling the traditional players, heralding a tectonic shift in Indian politics. The AAP appears to be set to emerge as the third pole in the country’s politics, levelling the Congress’ tally of two Chief Ministers in the country, an astonishing feat for a party that has been in existence for less than a decade.

Established on November 26, 2012, the scale of AAP’s success in Punjab has propelled it to the centrestage in national politics which is already witnessing intense jockeying by leaders of a number of regional parties to emerge as the face of the Opposition ahead of the 2024 general elections. Sourav Roy Barman writes

12:24 (IST)10 Mar 2022
Assembly Election Results: Booster shot for BJP and the national rise of Kejriwal
Celebrations break out at the BJP office in Lucknow on Thursday. (Express Photo: Vishal Srivastav)

Going by the trends, the Assembly elections in the five states will make history. In Punjab, the AAP is on its way to becoming the first regional party to win a second state, and in Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath is set to become the first chief minister to return to power after serving a full five-year term. The results of these elections also signal changes in national politics in the coming days. Liz Mathew explains the big picture

A polling officer carries an Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) and other election material for the seventh and last phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, at a distribution centre at Pahadiya Mandi, in Varanasi, Sunday, March 6, 2022. (PTI Photo/Arun Sharma)

Bucking four decade trend, BJP predicted to retain Uttar Pradesh

The results of the elections in Uttar Pradesh, which has 403 Assembly seats, is keenly watched today. With 80 seats out of the 543 in Lok Sabha, 403 in the Assembly, and 31 of the 245 in Rajya Sabha, besides a 100-member Legislative Council, Uttar Pradesh with its over 15 crore voters carries more weight than any other state in the country’s politics. Yogi Adityanath, who took oath as Chief Minister on March 19, 2017, will be the third (after Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati) to complete their five-year tenure.

Most exit polls, barring two, forecast that the ruling BJP may suffer losses but will still cross the half-way mark of 202 comfortably and retain power, bucking a trend of nearly four decades. The state has not returned a government to power since 1985. The SP-RLD alliance, which waged a spirited campaign, may make major gains as compared to 2017 but is likely to fall well short of the magic figure. The Congress, the polls predicted, would remain in single digits.

A look at the politics of Uttar Pradesh, over the years

The OBC vote in Uttar Pradesh

Why power is charging Uttar Pradesh poll campaigns

Not just bulls, how bulldozers made it to election lexicon in UP

An interesting contest in Punjab, which may have national ramifications

An interesting contest is likely to play out in Punjab, the only state in these Assembly polls which is not under BJP rule. The outcome of the polls will reflect the fallout of the farmers' protests.

Most pollsters gave the AAP numbers much ahead of the ruling Congress and the Akali Dal-BSP combine. If the exit poll predictions hold true and the AAP manages to win Punjab, the outcome has the potential to trigger a churning in Indian politics, especially in the Opposition space as no other party barring the BJP and the Congress are in power in more than one state now.

Why Dalits and a Dalit CM matter in Punjab’s politics

Migrants in Punjab and why they matter

The Ravidassias of Punjab

How Congress is pitching old issues to win the Punjab election

A neck-and-neck race in Uttarakhand, Goa

In Uttarakhand, the opinion polls differed sharply. While some gave the ruling BJP an edge, others predicted the Congress would emerge as the single largest party. None of the polls gave either side more than 40 seats. No party has retained power in Uttarakhand since its formation in 2000. If the BJP manages to hold on to power, it will be a record of sorts. In 2017, riding the Modi wave, the BJP managed to win in 57 of the total 70 Assembly seats while the Congress was limited to 11 seats. Two of the remaining seats were won by independent candidates who are now with the ruling party.

In Goa too, pollsters predicted a dead-heat race with none of the polls predicting a comfortable victory for either the ruling BJP or the Congress. Most polls predicted that the AAP could win a couple of seats. Incidentally, one poll (ABP-C Voter) predicted that the Trinamool Congress would win 5-9 seats which, if turned out to be true, would place it in a king maker’s role. In the 40-member House, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party in 2017, winning 17 seats but the BJP, which won 13 seats, managed to form the government with the support of the Goa Forward Party and the MGP which had won three seats each and two independents.

Uttarakhand: A history of political instability and alternate governments

Behind Harish shift out of Ramnagar, Congress bid to curb Ranjit spoilsport

Uttarakhand polls: ‘Outsider’ takes many shades in Kumaon hills

Political significance of Bhandari community in Goa polls

An Expert Explains: Politics and history in Goa

Why TMC’s Goa entry has created a flutter in the state

All exit polls predict BJP win in Manipur

The election to Manipur's 60-member Assembly has been defined by turmoil, instability and defections. All the polls predicted that the ruling BJP would either emerge as the single largest party or cross the halfway mark. In 2017, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party in the state. Though the Congress had won 28 seats in the 60-member house, the BJP with 21 seats got the support of four MLAs each from the Naga People’s Front and the National People’s Party and one from the Lok Janshakti Party and an independent to reach the magic figure of 31. Most polls predicted that the NPP and NPF could repeat or better their 2017 performance.

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First published on: 10-03-2022 at 08:05:08 am
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