New research: Covid vaccines prevented 42 lakh deaths in India in first year

Covid-19 vaccines are estimated to have prevented nearly 1.98 crore deaths worldwide — out of a potential 3.14 crore deaths — in the first year of the vaccine programme. What about in India? What methodology was used for the study?

4 min readPuneUpdated: Jun 24, 2022 07:49 AM IST

India began vaccination in January 2021. According to the Health Ministry, till date, the cumulative vaccination coverage exceeds 196.62 crore. (Express Photo/File)

COVID-19 vaccines are estimated to have prevented nearly 1.98 crore deaths worldwide — out of a potential 3.14 crore deaths — in the first year of the vaccine programme, a new modelling study has found. These include 42.10 lakh deaths prevented in India. The study has been published in The Lancet Infectious Disease.

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Vaccination in India

“The study estimates how many deaths could have been saved between December 8, 2020 and December 8, 2021— which reflects the first year in which vaccines were distributed — and for India, we have estimated that 42.10 lakh deaths were prevented by vaccination,” Dr Oliver Watson, lead author of the study, from Imperial College London, told The Indian Express. “This shows the remarkable impact that vaccination has had, especially in India, which was the first country to experience the impact of the Delta variant,” he said, by email.

“These estimates are based on the estimates of excess mortality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic, which they have sourced from the Economist and are similar to the estimates that the WHO (World Haelth Organization) have reported. Independently, our group has also investigated the Covid-19 death toll based on reports of excess mortality and seroprevalence surveys and arrive at similar estimates of almost 10 times the official count,” he said.

India began vaccination in January 2021. According to the Health Ministry, till date, the cumulative vaccination coverage exceeds 196.62 crore. India’s has been one of the world’s fastest vaccination drives. More than 65% of the population are fully vaccinated, according to Our World in Data.

Global inequalities

The study is based on data from 185 countries and territories. It found high and upper-middle income countries
accounted for the greatest number of prevented deaths (1.22 crore/1.98 crore), highlighting inequalities around the world. A further 5.99 lakh deaths could have been averted if the WHO’s target of vaccinating 40% of the population in every country by the end of 2021 had been met, the report said. Despite the speed of vaccine rollout worldwide, more than 35 lakh Covid-19 deaths have been reported since the first vaccine was given in December 2020.

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Methodology

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The researchers used a model based on country-level data for officially recorded Covid-19 deaths occurring between December 8, 2020 and December 8, 2021. To account for under-reporting of deaths in countries with weaker surveillance systems, they carried out a separate analysis based on the number of excess deaths recorded above those that would have been expected during the same time period. Where official data was not available, the team used estimates of all-cause excess mortality. These analyses were compared with an alternative hypothetical scenario in which no vaccines were delivered. China was not included.

Based on officially recorded Covid-19 deaths, an estimated 1.81 crore deaths would have occurred if vaccinations had not been implemented. Vaccination prevented 1.44 crore deaths. These findings do not account for under-reporting of deaths. The team did a further analysis based on total excess deaths to account for this.

More than three quarters (1.55 crore/ 1.98 crore) of deaths averted were due to the direct protection provided by vaccination; and 43 lakh were estimated to have been prevented by reduced transmission.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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