170 districts are hotspots, another 207 potential as cases near 12,000 mark

Another 207 districts have also reported COVID-19 cases, but are not hotspots yet. Health Ministry Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal said the district authorities have been told to implement cluster containment plans in these areas as they could develop as potential hotspots.

Asked about the categorisation as hotspots, Agarwal said these are districts where either the number of cases or the rate of growth is high.

With 1,118 new cases being reported in the last 24 hours, the total number of cases touched 11,933 (1,344 recovered) on Wednesday. The death toll is now 392, with 39 deaths reported in the last 24 hours.

While 28,941 samples were tested in the last 24 hours, a total of 2,74,599 samples have been tested so far.

The number of districts which have reported COVID-19 cases has now increased to 377 (170 hotspots, 207 non-hotspots), from 354 on April 12.

Madhya Pradesh alone accounts for 11 of the new districts which have been affected in the last few days.

Express Special: A long haul, spend wisely, but don’t skimp on the truly needy

While 28,941 samples were tested in the last 24 hours, a total of 2,74,599 samples have been tested so far.

According to a letter from Union Health Secretary Preeti Sudan to the states, the 170 hotspots include districts which together account for 80 per cent of the cases in India, districts which together account for 80 per cent of the cases in a state, and districts where the doubling time (number of days taken for cases to double) is low (less than four days).

Sixteen states have reported five or more districts: Andhra Pradesh (11), Assam (5), Delhi (10), Gujarat (6), Haryana (6), Himachal Pradesh (5), Jammu and Kashmir (8), Karnataka (8), Kerala (7), Madhya Pradesh (6), Maharashtra (14), Punjab (8), Rajasthan (12), Tamil Nadu (22), Telangana (9), and Uttar Pradesh (13).

Of these, six states – Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, UP, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi – account for almost half of the hotspot districts identified for containment.

The list includes Kurnool and Guntur in Andhra Pradesh, Chandigarh, Pathanamthitta and Ernakulam in Kerala, Jammu (J&K), Aurangabad (Maharashtra), Jalandhar (Punjab) and Chengalpattu (Tamil Nadu).

READ | Some decisive steps to revive economic activity, but challenges on ground

In the hotspots listed as “clusters”, the number of cases ranged from two to 14 as on April 12.

Besides Delhi, the other cities where hotspots have been listed include Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Pune, Jaipur, Chennai and Hyderabad.

While the data on district-wise case loads has not been made public, the districts listed as hotspots together accounted for over 87 per cent of the total cases as on April 12.

Ten districts listed as “large outbreaks” had over 100 cases as on April 12. Of these, the districts in Maharashtra saw the highest spike in cases between April 6 and 12: Thane (79%), Pune (67%), Mumbai (65%). Jaipur saw a 68% spike in that period.

In 35 districts listed as “large outbreaks”, the number of cases increased by over 50 per cent between April 6 and 12. Seven of these were in Maharashtra, five in Tamil Nadu, four in Rajasthan, and three each in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

In the hotspots listed as “clusters”, the number of cases ranged from two to 14 as on April 12. Of these, 26 districts, including three in Punjab, have seen an over 50 per cent spike.

Sources said these hotspots are unlikely to qualify for the lockdown relaxations announced by the Ministry of Home Affairs, although the final decision rests with the states.

“We have written to the states today to deal with the hotspot districts as per the containment plan. We want cluster containment plans to be carried out in the non-hotspot districts too. We have also told them to declare any areas which have a high doubling rate as a hotspot… we need to consolidate the success we have had so far,” Agarwal said.

READ | Coronavirus lockdown: 7 million jobs are on the line, losses piling up, restaurants stare into lockdown abyss

The districts where no new cases have been reported in the last 28 days are being classified as ‘green zone’ areas.

He reiterated that there is no community transmission in the country so far. “What we are seeing is some local outbreaks and clusters, where cluster and outbreak containment strategies are being adopted,” he said.

The districts where no new cases have been reported in the last 28 days are being classified as ‘green zone’ areas.

Meanwhile, in a video conference with state chief secretaries, DGPs and other senior officers, the Cabinet Secretary underlined the implementation of the containment strategy at the field level. The states were briefed on the large outbreak containment strategy and cluster containment strategy.

The large outbreak containment plan hinges on extensive contact tracing and active search for cases in the containment zone, testing all suspect cases and high-risk contacts, isolating all suspected or confirmed cases, quarantining contacts and implementing social distancing measures.

For larger outbreaks, in addition to the usual measures such as testing, contact tracing, isolation etc, the focus is on a particular geographic zone, and hospitals around the area are kept ready for a rise in cases.

According to data available till April 12, 178 districts had reported more than five cases. These included 26 districts in Tamil Nadu, 16 in Uttar Pradesh, 14 each in Maharashtra and Telangana, 13 in Rajasthan, 12 in Kerala, 11 each in Delhi and Karnataka, 10 in Andhra Pradesh, 8 each in Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab, 6 each in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, 4 in Haryana, 2 in Uttarakhand, and one each in Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Ladakh and Odisha.

Till the first week of April, the daily increase in cases was around 400-500. But the second week saw a daily spike of about 800. The highest single-day spike so far was on Tuesday, when 1,463 new cases were reported.

In less than a week, between April 8 and April 14, the total number of cases doubled from 5,114 to 10,815. Since April 3, roughly two in every 50 tests were confirmed positive.

A comparison with South Korea shows that in the first 40 days of COVID-19 cases in India, the spread was slower than in South Korea. However, since April 12 (42nd day), the spread in India was faster than in South Korea. In South Korea, by the 40th day, the curve had begun to flatten.

It has been exactly a month since India reported 100 cases. A comparison with the corresponding month in the United States shows that India is still maintaining a significantly slower case growth.

Don’t miss these articles on Coronavirus from the Explained section:

-How coronavirus attacks, step by step

-Mask or no mask? Why the guidance has been shifting

-Besides a face cover, should I wear gloves when I go outdoors?

-How the Agra, Bhilwara and Pathanamthitta Covid-19 containment models differ

-Can coronavirus damage your brain?