Western Himalaya warming faster, will lose most snow: What recent study found

The study found that winters are warming faster than springs in the Western Himalaya stretches spanning Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh.

4 min readPuneAug 18, 2026 02:54 PM IST

Western Himalaya study weather winter warm

Under high emissions, the western Himalayan winter could warm by more than 7°C, the study found. (Photo: Special arrangement)

Western Himalaya, spanning Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh, is warming faster than the central and eastern stretches and will face the steepest snow loss in the coming years, a new study has found.

The study, ‘Vulnerability of the Himalayan region under the climate change’, published in the Journal of Earth System Science in June, also found that winters are warming faster than springs in the western Himalaya.

Conducted by researchers from Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, and Ashoka University, the study combined 120 years of temperature records from 1901 to 2020 with eight global climate models to track warming and snow loss across three Himalayan sectors in India and how far that change could go by 2100. It found that the western Himalaya region is warming faster than the central and eastern stretches, in every season and under every emission scenario tested.

“The Himalaya is often discussed as a single system, but our observations and models both say otherwise. The western Himalaya consistently emerges as the most sensitive stretch. It warms the most and loses the most snow under every pathway we tested. That has direct consequences for the states that sit in it,” Protyusha Mukhopadhyay, lead author, BIT, Mesra, said.

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Winters warming faster

The study found that winters are warming faster than springs, night-time temperatures are climbing faster than daytime highs, and springtime snow loss over the western Himalaya could be three times larger on a high-emission pathway than on a low-emission one by the end of the century.

“Less snow on the ground would mean a darker surface, which absorbs more heat, which melts more snow. It matters because winter is the season in which snow is supposed to build up; warmer winters mean less snow banked for the melt months that follow,” Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, corresponding author from Ashoka University, said.

Under high emissions, the western Himalayan winter could warm by more than 7°C, the study found. The models show the same west-to-east pattern throughout the century. If emissions stay high, winters by 2081-2100 would be 7.18°C warmer in the western Himalaya, 6.71°C warmer in the central sector, and 5.82°C warmer in the east, compared with the early 1900s. Spring temperatures warm in the same order: 6.91°C, 6.41°C, and 5.16°C, respectively.

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Warmer-than-normal years the norm

The researchers from IITM, Pune, along with others, used two kinds of evidence. As per the report, the first is a 120-year record of actual temperature measurements across the region, from 1901 to 2020. The second is a set of eight global climate models, first checked against what has already happened and then run forward to 2100 under five possible futures, from a world that cuts emissions sharply to one that keeps burning fossil fuels at the current pace.

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Two seasons are examined—winter, when snow builds up, and the pre-monsoon spring months, when it melts.

The range is split into three stretches. Western Himalaya, central Himalaya (largely Uttarakhand) and eastern Himalaya (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and the wider Northeast). Between them, they hold more than 15,000 glaciers and feed the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, rivers that roughly 1.5 billion people depend on.

As per the study, compared with the first three decades of the 1900s, all three stretches of the range had already warmed by close to 1°C in winter by the two decades to 2014: 1.06°C in the western Himalaya, 0.96°C in central Himalaya, and 1.09°C in the east. Spring-time temperatures rose by 1.08°C in the west, and 0.83°C in the centre and east.

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The warming has not arrived at a steady pace. Warmer-than-normal years have become the rule rather than the exception across all three stretches over the past 20–30 years; most of the change has come recently, the study said.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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