April 5, 2011 3:59:08 am
With the monsoon forecast for this year slated to be released after April 20,conjectures on the tsunami affecting the monsoon forecast are not entirely true,say senior Met officials in Pune. Though there are some changes in the ocean temperature which have to be observed or the displacement of water,not much should be read into it,said officials.
The annual monsoon forecast for this year will check the usual factorstemperature in north Indian region,volume of warm water in Pacific,Indian ocean sea surface temperature,North Atlantic sea surface temperature,East Asia pressure. The Met department will submit the report keeping the usual factors in mind,said a Met department official.
The data is important and keenly watched on Indias farm dependent economy. The weather officials had maintained that the monsoon was normal last year and would be normal this year as well. Last years monsoon predictions by IMD were accurate and the country saw a good monsoon spell last year. According to the forecast for the 2010 monsoon released by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 25,rainfall for the country as a whole was 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4% compared with 98% of LPA estimated in April earlier.
In terms of spatial distribution,IMD expected aggregate rainfall as follows: North-East India (103% of regions LPA),North-West India (102% of regions LPA),South Peninsula (102% of regions LPA),and Central India (99% of regions LPA),respectively.
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