For drought-hit Maharashtra,monsoon is expected to bring some relief. After a year of deficient rainfall,the country is expected to receive a normal monsoon this year.
The first long range forecast of the impending monsoon,issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted that the seasonal rainfall would be 98 per cent of the long period average rainfall for the year. The long period average (LPA) rainfall for the country is 890 mm. As per definition of IMD,less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed as deficient,rainfall between 90-96 per cent of LPA is termed as below normal,96-104 per cent of LPA is termed as above normal and 110 per cent of LPA rainfall is termed as excess.
IMDs forecast matches with the monsoon outlook of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF),in which they had predicted a normal monsoon,albeit southern states would be receiving deficient rainfall. Skymet,a private weather forecasting service had also predicated normal monsoon. However,Skymet had predicted up to 103 per cent of long period average rainfall for the 2013 monsoons.
For the prediction,IMD had taken into account experimental forecasts of various national and international institutes. The five important predictors,which include the surface temperature of the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean,the east Asia mean sea level temperature,northwest Europe land surface temperature and Equatorial Pacific Warm Water volume has been considered for the prediction.
IMD also observed that both El Nino and La Nina were neutral during the period and are not expected to have any effect on the monsoon.