3 min readPuneJul 25, 2022 12:45 PM IST
First published on: Jul 25, 2022 at 01:21 AM IST
The Southwest monsoon is all set to enter the season’s first break-phase starting July 27. There will be respite for states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat which have suffered due to floods, said IMD. During this phase, rainfall activity will largely be concentrated along the Himalayan foothills.
This would mean that the upcoming rainfall spell could help reduce the prevailing rainfall deficiency since June 1 over Uttar Pradesh (- 55 per cent), Jharkhand (-51 per cent), Bihar (-44 per cent) and West Bengal (-28 per cent). Existing deficiencies in Manipur (-39 per cent) and Tripura (-32 per cent), too, could improve starting July-end, the Met officials said.
“After a good rainfall during the first fortnight of July, there will now be some much needed respite for Gujarat and Maharashtra which were hit by floods. As there are no synoptic systems that are likely to develop during the next one week, rainfall will be associated with westerly or southwesterly winds,” Medha Khole, senior forecaster at IMD, Pune, said.
During the monsoon break phase, rainfall over central, north peninsular and western India regions remains subdued. This as the monsoon trough remains to the north of its normal position and moves to the foothills of the Himalayas. It is normal to witness monsoon-active or monsoon-break phases during the four-month long Southwest monsoon season. Extreme southern India and eastern India, too, benefit from the monsoon break period.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon trough on Sunday passed through southwest Rajasthan, Jaisalmer, Kota, Guna, Satna, Ambikapur and Balasore, dipping into east-central Bay of Bengal.
“The monsoon trough is very likely to shift northwards to its normal position from July 27 and in the subsequent three to four days,” the weather bulletin issued by the agency stated.
Meanwhile, the next three days will see extreme heavy rainfall (over 204mm in 24 hours) over Gujarat and southeast Madhya Pradesh. It will be under the influence of a low pressure system prevailing over southwest Rajasthan and its associated cyclonic circulation. There is another cyclonic circulation brewing over southeast Madhya Pradesh.
“Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall, thunder and lightning is very likely over Gujarat, Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh on July 25 and 26,” the IMD warned.
So far this monsoon, Gujarat has seen a deluge in July. As on July 24, Gujarat has received 490.2mm of rain against a normal of 303.9mm, making it 64 per cent above normal. Likewise, Rajasthan, too has recorded 51 per cent more rainfall than its average of 174mm till date.
Over the next ten days, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) — the eastward propagating tropical pulses positively affecting Indian monsoon — will enter the Indian Ocean and keep the rainfall active over the country.
Vehicles wade through a waterlogged road near PMPML depot at Swargate. (File) 
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