Why Pune’s 31% monsoon surplus could vanish amid grim September forecast

If Pune sees below-normal rain in September, reservoir levels could come down, a weather expert has warned.

4 min readPuneSep 1, 2026 05:46 PM IST

In July, Shivajinagar, Pune’s main weather station, saw historically heavy rain on three consecutive days. But August brought only 84.5 mm of rain—the third‑lowest in a decade. (Representational image)

August brought a 28 per cent rainfall deficit to Pune district. Yet, it is entering September with a 31 per cent surplus in cumulative monsoon rain—from June to September—due to excess rainfall in July. But with forecasts warning of below‑normal September showers, that surplus may vanish fast.

“There is a high probability that there will be below-normal rainfall in most districts of Maharashtra. When August received little rainfall, July’s excess supported it. If September sees below-normal rain after the August fury, there will be an impact,” K S Hosalikar, former head of Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, said.

“Reservoir levels would come down quickly, even in the next 15 days. The surplus rain reading in Pune district could come down to normal soon. We would be pulling from resources, because there is no inflow,” he warned.

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Hosalikar pointed out that the maximum and minimum temperatures projected for September are above normal. “This means that evaporation will be very high. In dams, reservoirs and lakes, when temperature rises, water can reduce significantly. At the same time, people in Pune will be using water as usual,” he said, adding that unless the Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal corporations step in, “this could become a pain point”.

Heavy rain in July, dry in August

This July, Shivajinagar, Pune’s main weather station, saw historically heavy rain on three consecutive days. But August brought only 84.5 mm of rain—the third‑lowest in a decade, after 40.6 mm in 2021 and 42.1 mm in 2023. The total rain received in the entire season, however, ensured the city had a 200 mm surplus rain as September began.

Also Read | After 16% rainfall deficit in August, IMD says September to remain below normal as well

The dry August in the district and the city mirrored the overall situation in the country and the state: India ended August with a 14 per cent rainfall deficit, and Maharashtra, 12 per cent.

According to Hosalikar, the rainfall in August has been “very challenging” for Maharashtra as the skies were clear most of the time.

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“Since the total rainfall is still looking good, it means that the reservoirs hold sufficient supply of water. In the agriculture sector, we have needed to depend upon other irrigation methods. In areas without good irrigation methods, crops must have suffered due to the August heat and almost no rain. When there is no rain, there is mostly moist heat or dry heat, which can cause exhaustion and other stresses,” Hosalikar said.

Also Read | Strongest El Niño in decades possible by year-end: What it means for India

El Niño and a rise in temperatures

The IMD has said that the country is likely to see below-normal rain in September as well, less than 91 per cent of the Long Period Average.

Climatologically, Maharashtra has received good rainfall during the withdrawal phase of the monsoon, which starts around September 10 from Rajasthan, Hosalikar said. “This could be associated with thunderstorms…the state could receive rainfall that would lead to a partial replenishment of the resources,” he added.

He added that unlike the past, the Indian economy has grown to a point where one bad monsoon is unlikely to trigger food shortages. While water demand could increase, Maharashtra, where many regions face water scarcity, has implemented solutions. “The state, which is the largest contributor to the country’s economy, is sufficiently equipped to navigate this crisis,” Hosalikar added.

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He added a note of caution. “This is the time when we also talk about the El Niño maturing. There is a very clear forecast that it could peak at the end of October or the beginning of November. So, temperatures could be on the rise,” he said.

Dipanita Nath

Dipanita Nath is a Senior Assistant Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. She is a versatile journalist with a deep interest in the intersection of culture, sustainability, and urban life. Professional Background Experience: Before joining The Indian Express, she worked with other major news organizations including Hindustan Times, The Times of India, and Mint. Core Specializations: She is widely recognized for her coverage of the climate crisis, theatre and performing arts, heritage conservation, and the startup ecosystem (often through her "Pune Inc" series). Storytelling Focus: Her work often unearths "hidden stories" of Pune—focusing on historical institutes, local traditions, and the personal journeys of social innovators. Recent Notable Articles (December 2025) Her recent reporting highlights Pune’s cultural pulse and the environmental challenges facing the city during the winter season: 1. Climate & Environment "Pune shivers on coldest morning of the season; minimum temperature plunges to 6.9°C" (Dec 20, 2025): Reporting on the record-breaking cold wave in Pune and the IMD's forecast for the week. "How a heritage tree-mapping event at Ganeshkhind Garden highlights rising interest in Pune’s green legacy" (Dec 20, 2025): Covering a citizen-led initiative where Gen Z and millennials gathered to document and protect ancient trees at a Biodiversity Heritage Site. "Right to breathe: Landmark NGT order directs PMC to frame norms for pollution from construction sites" (Dec 8, 2025): Reporting on a significant legal victory for residents fighting dust and air pollution in urban neighborhoods like Baner. 2. "Hidden Stories" & Heritage "Inside Pune library that’s nourished minds of entrepreneurs for 17 years" (Dec 21, 2025): A feature on the Venture Center Library, detailing how a collection of 3,500 specialized books helps tech startups navigate the product life cycle. "Before he died, Ram Sutar gave Pune a lasting gift" (Dec 18, 2025): A tribute to the legendary sculptor Ram Sutar (creator of the Statue of Unity), focusing on his local works like the Chhatrapati Shivaji statue at Pune airport. "The Pune institute where MA Jinnah was once chief guest" (Dec 6, 2025): An archival exploration of the College of Agriculture, established in 1907, and its historical role in India's freedom struggle. 3. Arts, Theatre & "Pune Inc" "Satyajit Ray, Ritwik Ghatak were not rivals but close friends, says veteran filmmaker" (Dec 17, 2025): A deep-dive interview ahead of the Pune International Film Festival (PIFF) exploring the camaraderie between legends of Indian cinema. "Meet the Pune entrepreneur helping women build and scale businesses" (Dec 16, 2025): Part of her "Pune Inc" series, profiling Nikita Vora’s efforts to empower female-led startups. "How women drone pilots in rural Maharashtra are cultivating a green habit" (Dec 12, 2025): Exploring how technology is being used by women in agriculture to reduce chemical use and labor. Signature Style Dipanita Nath is known for intellectual curiosity and a narrative-driven approach. Whether she is writing about a 110-year-old eatery or the intricacies of the climate crisis, she focuses on the human element and the historical context. Her columns are often a blend of reportage and cultural commentary, making them a staple for readers interested in the "soul" of Pune. X (Twitter): @dipanitanath ... Read More

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