EVEN AS the first sero survey of five high-incidence areas in Pune showed that half the samples collected had developed antibodies against Covid-19, the same areas are also witnessing a slow pace of spread at present.
Going by the survey released on Monday, five prabhags, including Yerawada, Kasbapeth-Somwarpeth, Rastapeth-Raviwarpeth, Lohiyanagar-Kasewadi and Navipeth-Parvati, were selected due to high incidence of cases during the initial stages of the outbreak. Samples were collected from people, mostly asymptomatic, between July 20 and August 5.
The Lohiyanagar-Kasewadi under Bhavanipeth ward office was the first prabhag that was worst-hit by the viral infection and reported maximum cases. The adjoining Rastapeth-Raviwarpeth prabhag is also under the same ward office. The report concluded that Lohiyanagar-Kasewadi prabhag has 65.4 per cent prevalence of seropositivity, while it is 45.7 per cent in Rastapeth-Raviwarpeth. The latest trend indicates that the growth of newly infected patients has slowed down to 10.2 per cent in the last week.
Navipeth-Parvati and Kasbapeth-Somwarpeth prabhags in Kasba-Vishrambaugwada ward office registered 56.7 per cent and 36.1 per cent prevalence of seropositivity, respectively, while the growth rate of new cases in this ward office area has dropped to 8.4 per cent, the second lowest among 15 ward offices.
The Yerawada prabhag in Yerawada-Kalas-Dhanori ward office is the most affected area due to the pandemic. The survey showed 56.6 per cent prevalence of seropositivity, but the PMC has been able to register a growth of 11.3 per cent in new cases in the last week.
“We cannot comment on this just yet. We are aware of these trends and are analysing data to draw conclusions. We will report once the analysis is complete,” said Aarti Nagarkar, assistant professor at Interdisciplinary School of Health Sciences, Savitribai Phule Pune University, and also part of the team that conducted the serosurveillance for the PMC.
Going by last week’s data, Nagar Road-Vadgaonsheri ward office continues to record maximum growth in new cases at 17.6 per cent. The same growth was registered for Dhandkawadi-Sahakarnagar ward office followed by Warje-Karvenagar at 16.5 per cent, Sinhagad Road at 15.7 per cent, and the lowest of 6.6 per cent in Dhole-Patil ward office.
The strategy from the trends is also indicative when it comes to newly defined containment zones. The number of containment zones in ward offices, parts of which were included in the sero survey, has also reduced as the number of new cases has dropped. The Kasba-Vishrambaugwada ward office has four zones, while Bhavanipeth and Yerawada-Kalas-Dhanori ward offices have two zones. Kothrud-Bavdhan and Hadapsar-Mundhwa ward offices have maximum containment zones at 11, and both recorded a late surge in number of cases as compared to other ward offices. The Nagar Road-Vadgaonsheri and Shivajinagar-Ghole Road ward offices have 10 containment zones, while there is one zone each in Aundh, Sinhagad Road and Wanowrie-Ramtekdi ward office areas.
The sero survey has also indicated that smaller the house, higher the prevalence of seropositivity. All the five areas selected are densely populated and in the heart of the city with people living in smaller houses. Maximum prevalence of seropositivity at 59.6 per cent was recorded in houses less than 150 sq feet area, while the lowest at 34.6 per cent was recorded in houses measuring more than 501 sq feet, which are mainly large apartments and bungalows.
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