One in 5 girls in India still married below legal age, finds new study

“India’s success is crucial in achieving the SDG target of 5.3. The national rate of decline in child marriage during the last three decades has been considerable. However, previous research suggests that substantial variability of the rate of decline of child marriage at the sub-national level exists. Given that state governments tend to enact social sector policy in India, historical implementation of programmes to address child marriage has varied across and within states,” says Dr S V Subramanian from Harvard Centre for Population and Development Studies and one among the authors of the study.

Although there have been dramatic declines in child marriage during the last three decades, there is evidence of stagnation. The largest reduction in child marriage occurred between 2006 and 2016. Child marriage declined considerably during the study period (1993–2021 for girls and 2006–2021 for boys).

The all-India prevalence of child marriage in girls declined from 49.4 per cent in 1993 to 22.3 per cent in 2021 while that among the boys declined from 7.1 per cent in 2006 to 2.2 per cent in 2021.

The researchers used data from five National Family Health Surveys from 1993, 1999, 2006, 2016,and 2021 to compile the study. They included 3,10,721 women aged 20–24 years between 1993 and 2021 and 43,436 men aged between 20 and 24 years between 2006 and 2021.

Child marriage was defined as marriage in individuals younger than 18 years for men and women. They calculated the annual change in prevalence during the study period for states and Union Territories and estimated the population headcount of child brides and grooms.

Researchers have noted that substantial variation exists in the prevalence of girl and boy child marriages across the states and Union Territories during the study period. All states, except Manipur, experienced a decline in the prevalence of girl child marriage between 1993 and 2021.

Between 1993 and 1999, 20 per cent (six of 30) of states and Union Territories experienced an increase in girl child marriage whereas between 1999 and 2006, 50 per cent (15 of 30) of states and Union Territories experienced increase in girl child marriage. The period between 2006 and 2016 was characterised by accelerated reductions in child marriage in girls.

Manipur was the only state that experienced an increase in the prevalence of child marriage in girls. However, this increase was far smaller than the previous increase the north-eastern state had witnessed between 1999 and 2006, the study pointed out.

Between 2019 and 2021, the magnitude of reduction in child marriage in girls across states and Union Territories was smaller than the reduction that occurred between 2006 and 2016. Six (16.7%) of 36 states or Union Territories saw an increase in the prevalence in child marriage in girls during 2016–2021, with the surge observed in Manipur and Tripura being greater than during any previous period.

“We aimed to estimate the prevalence of child marriage in girls and boys in India and describe its change across 36 states and Union Territories between 1993 and 2021. This study is the first to provide robust sub-national estimates of changes in prevalence over time and headcount of child marriage in India using a methodology to make state-level and Union Territory- level estimates comparable over time,” said Professor Subramanian.

According to researchers in 2021, the headcount of child marriage in girls was 13,464,450 and 14,54,894 in boys. Four states – Bihar (16·7%), West Bengal (15·2%), Uttar Pradesh (12·5%), and Maharashtra (8·2%) – accounted for more than half of the total burden of child marriages in girls.

For boys, Gujarat (29%), Bihar (16·5%), West Bengal (12.9%), and Uttar Pradesh (8.2%) accounted for more than 60 per cent of the burden.

Uttar Pradesh was a notable outlier for having a relatively low prevalence but high burden for child marriages in both girls and boys in 2021, and Tripura was an outlier with a high prevalence but low burden.

For child marriage in boys, Maharashtra was an outlier for having a high burden but low prevalence, whereas Manipur has a high prevalence but fairly low burden. The overall headcount of child marriage in girls decreased by just more than 5 million individuals between 1993 and 2021, although seven states saw an increase in headcount during this period.

The largest absolute increase in headcount was observed in West Bengal, representing an increase of 32.3 per cent in headcount. Jharkhand had the largest percentage increase in headcount (53.1%) between 1993 and 2021. Assam and Bihar also saw an increase in which more than 50,000 more women married early in 2021 (representing an increase of 13.1%) than in 1993 (representing an increase of 2·6%).

Most states and Union Territories saw a decrease in headcount of child marriage in girls between 1993 and 2021. Uttar Pradesh had the most substantial absolute decrease, which accounted for an estimated one-third of the all-India decrease in headcount of child marriage in girls observed between 1993 and 2021. West Bengal saw the largest absolute increase with over 500000 more girls married as children.