With over 24 per cent rain deficit in August and the monsoon season already coming to its fag end for this year, the India Meteorological Department has hinted at delayed commencement in monsoon withdrawal this year.
The normal date for the monsoon’s retreat from Rajasthan is September 17 but this may not be realised. In recent years, the overall completion of monsoon withdrawal from the entire country has shown a delaying trend.
This year, the IMD’s latest Extended Range Forecast suggests continuing rainfall activity over these north-western regions till September end. This could also mean that the existing rainfall deficit over many of the states could get covered, and further replenishment of reservoir stocks. Earlier this month, the IMD had said that the monthly rainfall for September would be ‘above normal’ with respect to the long period average.
The possible delay in the commencement of monsoon withdrawal is due to the formation of the season’s first depression early next week, which will maintain favourable conditions for rainfall activity over the core monsoon zone.
“Along with the likely formation of a low-pressure system in the central Bay of Bengal on Saturday and its further intensification into a depression by Monday, there will be widespread rainfall along Konkan and Goa, Odisha and Chhattisgarh till September 14,” stated the IMD’s forecast on Friday.
Currently, there is a low-pressure area and its associated cyclonic circulation prevailing over east Rajasthan and the neighbouring areas, which is keeping rainfall activity steady over Maharashtra and parts of central India. Adding to this is the monsoon trough running to the south of its normal position.
The Met office has warned of isolated heavy spells (64.4mm to 115.5mm in 24 hours) and issued an ‘Yellow’ alert over Uttarakhand, Punjab and west Rajasthan till Sunday, and similar intense rain with ‘Orange’ alert for Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Goa on September 13 and 14.
With a fresh low-pressure system in the offing, the Southwest Monsoon will be active to vigorous over Uttarakhand, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Odisha over the next one week. Gujarat and Odisha remain among the most deficit states this season.