Updated: July 2, 2021 9:12:31 am
Rainfall over the country as a whole during July is expected to be normal, and quantitatively it will be 94 to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA ).
However, a large geographical area covering northwest, southern peninsula, some areas of central and eastern India will receive below normal rainfall, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
It is the first time that the Met office is issuing a month-wise rainfall forecast along with the likely rainfall distribution over the entire country.
This month, below normal rainfall is forecast over south Kerala, west and north Andhra Pradesh, Konkan and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, north Gujarat, north Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, north Uttar Pradesh, northern Odisha, West Bengal, southern Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.
As a result, the Met office has flagged the need for providing irrigation support to all ongoing transplantation and sowing activities across India. However, subdued rainfall since the past fortnight will not affect rice transplantation, said IMD officials.
Contributing about 35 per cent of the season’s rainfall, July rain is crucial for agriculture and reservoir replenishment.
“All early sown crops will need to be provided with irrigation and provision for adequate power supply for the same is important. Or, efforts will be needed to retain soil moisture in the fields. All agriculture activities must be closely monitored,” Mohapatra said, while releasing the IMD’s July forecast on Thursday.
The monsoon has made no advancement after June 19 and is expected to progress only after July 7, suggesting the break-in-monsoon for another week. These active and break phases are normal during the monsoon season. Subdued rainfall activity is mainly due to the lack of favourable large-scale atmospheric features, weak phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and no development of low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
“The rainfall activity will slowly begin to revive after July 7 but the full active phase is expected only after July 10. Around then, a low-pressure system will develop over the east-central region of the Bay of Bengal. The system will also strengthen the westerly winds. Thereafter, enhanced rainfall will continue till the end of this month,” said Mohapatra.
Also expected next week is the active Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) — which favours convective activities — over the Arabian Sea and later the Bay of Bengal, helping the monsoon become active again.
On further progress, the IMD chief said the monsoon will not advance over the entire country close to its normal date of July 8 this year. “Though the monsoon advanced over many states ahead of schedule, it will not cover the entire country by July 8. However, a standard deviation of seven days and monsoon covering all of India by July 15 is still considered normal,” he said.
Over north and northwest India — Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Rajasthan — where the monsoon is yet to arrive, heat wave conditions will begin to subside by Friday. “The frequency of heat waves in July is less, but there have been climatological records from the past. Heat wave occurs in July, especially when the monsoon is in its weak phase,” said the IMD chief.
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