A cyclone is brewing in the Bay of Bengal and it is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast around December 4. The storm, once developed, will be called Jawad (read as Jowad), as named by Saudi Arabia.
Though frequent low-pressure systems developed during the recent weeks, it is for the first time in 31 years that October and November months passed without any cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea). Climatologically, during the post-monsoon months, the maximum number of cyclones develop in this region in November.
According to cyclone development frequency data maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), on eight occasions between between 1891 and 2021, no cyclones developed in this region during both October and November. These years were – 2021, 1990, 1961, 1954, 1953, 1914, 1900 and 1895. For 41 years, October reported no cyclones and November remained without cyclones on 32 occasions during the past 132 years.
On Tuesday, the IMD said that a low-pressure system had developed off Thailand coast and it will enter the Andaman Sea by early Wednesday.
This low-pressure area will strengthen, and by December 2, become a depression and prevail over east-central Bay of Bengal. “The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and cross north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast during morning hours of December 4,” read IMD’s special weather bulletin issued on Tuesday.
In view of this developing cyclone, the Met department has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman and Nicobar islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha till December 4.
An ‘yellow’ alert ahead of heavy rainfall (64.4mm to 115.5mm in 24-hours) has been issued for Srikakulam, Vishakapatnam and Vijayanagara districts of Andhra Pradesh for December 3 and 4. The Met department has issued an ‘orange’ alert with likelihood of very heavy rainfall (115.6mm to 204.4mm in 24-hours) on December 3 and 4 over Puri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Khurda, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Cuttack and Nayagarh districts of Odisha.
Meanwhile, a low-pressure system will develop in the east-central Arabian Sea by Wednesday. The passing western disturbance as a trough will interact with this low pressure, lead to moisture incursion and cause intense rainfall over Gujarat and north Madhya Maharashtra over the next two days.
Due to favourable sea conditions prevailing since September-end, at least five low-pressure systems, of which two intensified into depressions, affected the southern peninsular.
As a result, the all-India rainfall for October and November ended with 48 per cent excess. This was mainly contributed by surplus rain over Kerala (115 per cent), Tamil Nadu (106 per cent), Karnataka (103 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (47 per cent) in the last two months.