Epidemiological modelling indicates COVID-19 pandemic may recede in July if transmission is low

The IISER Kolkata model also indicates that if a national lockdown was not implemented, India could have faced a catastrophic pandemic, rivaling and probably exceeding the worst-hit nations.

3 min readPuneMay 5, 2020 11:31 PM IST

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The IISER team consisted of scientists Dibyendu Nandi, Ayan Banerjee, Rajesh Nayak, PhD students Shaonwita Pal, Soumyaranjan Dash, and undergraduate students Agnibha Banerjee and Vishal Singh.

The results of a new epidemiological modelling, released by researchers of IISER Kolkata on Tuesday, suggest that the novel coronavirus pandemic may keep growing in the coming weeks. The model predicts that the pandemic may show signs of receding only in early July if the effective rate of transmission of the disease can be kept low until then.

The IISER Kolkata model also indicates that if a national lockdown was not implemented, India could have faced a catastrophic pandemic, rivaling and probably exceeding the worst-hit nations.

The model indicates that had the first lockdown in India been implemented a month earlier, the current number of active infections would have been much lower. The researchers also find that had the lockdown been completely lifted on May 3, the disease would have spiked to very large numbers, which could have completely overwhelmed India’s healthcare infrastructure.

The model’s most likely scenario predicts that the number of active infections in India is poised to increase further and may only start decreasing after May 17. At its peak, there would be about 60,000 infected individuals with an upper range, considering the uncertainties, which may exceed one lakh cases.

“The model suggests that a significant number of infected individuals would still remain in the system on or around May 17 and they may spark another growth in the pandemic if they come in contact with population susceptible to the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” Professor Dibyendu Nandi, who led the research team, told The Indian Express.

Their modelling suggests that testing, contact tracing and quarantining of infected individuals and continuation of lockdown in hotspots may need to continue well into the monsoon season. “While the model predictions are purely from a scientific perspective, other perspectives also determine whether the lockdown can continue. Under the circumstances, the work of policy-makers is not easy, neither is it easy for the general public to accept a continued lockdown. Our aim was to explain the epidemiological perspective in a manner that makes it easy for the general public to understand the context in which these difficult choices have to be balanced” said Prof Nandi.

“I am happy to note the involvement of students in the creation of these resources, which include model and data analytics based assessment of the necessity and effectiveness of the national lockdown and predictions of the progression of the disease under various scenarios,” said Professor Sourav Pal, director of IISER Kolkata. These resources are available at: https://cessi.iiserkol.ac.in/coronavirus/.

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The IISER team consisted of scientists Dibyendu Nandi, Ayan Banerjee, Rajesh Nayak, PhD students Shaonwita Pal, Soumyaranjan Dash, and undergraduate students Agnibha Banerjee and Vishal Singh.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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