Updated: August 2, 2021 6:55:27 pm
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the country will receive normal rainfall till September.
“During August, the country’s quantitative rainfall is expected to be 94 to 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA), which is 258.1 mm. For August and September, the all-India rain will be 95 to 105 per cent of the LPA, which is 428.3 mm,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, during the release of this year’s southwest monsoon third stage (August and September) forecast.
This month, the monsoon activity will remain below normal over Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand where a number of extreme rainfall events had triggered landslides, mudslides and severe flooding in July. The IMD officials noted that a total of 112 extremely heavy events (more than 204.4 mm in 24-hours) were recorded in July, a majority of them reported from these states.
In addition, 567 events of very heavy rain (115.5 mm to 204.4 mm in 24 hours) were reported last month, making it a month of extreme weather for many parts of the country, especially Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
August rain over the entire southern peninsular, including Kerala (- 29 per cent) and Lakshadweep (-49 per cent), is expected to be normal. Rainfall is also likely to improve over the northeast, this month, yet another region witnessing below normal rainfall activity this year.
Below normal rain is likely during this month over Madhya Pradesh, northern Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada, southern Chhattisgarh and adjoining Vidarbha, Arunachal Pradesh and Punjab in August.
During the second-half of the monsoon, and mostly during September, above normal rain is forecast over Maharashtra, particularly the coastal districts, entire southern peninsula, Madhya Pradesh, parts of western Uttar Pradesh, northern Jammu and Kashmir and western Gujarat till the end of this monsoon season.
At present, neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues over the Pacific Ocean. This is one of the many factors that influence the Indian summer monsoon. The IMD has said there are chances of this neutral phase to end and re-emergence of La Nina — the opposite phase of El Nino when there are cooler sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean — to develop by October.
Currently, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to remain in its negative phase, the Met officials said.
In July, four low-pressure systems had developed over the Bay of Bengal and brought good and widespread rain over central, north and northwest India. Despite such favourable conditions, the all-India July rainfall had ended at 6.7 per cent below normal. Till August 2, the all-India rainfall was 4,465.6 mm that was 1 per cent short of normal.
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