April 20, 2021 12:11:50 am
A week-on-week analysis of the last one month shows the weekly growth rate in new Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra has slowed last week, a possible effect of partial lockdown across the state, though public health professionals said it was too early to see this as a lasting trend.
In Mumbai, the weekly growth rate of cases between April 11-18 stood at 11 per cent, a drop from 14.9 per cent between April 4-11.
Maharashtra’s growth rate dipped marginally— from 13.1 per cent between April 4-11 to 12.6 cent between April 11-18. On Monday, the state recorded 58,924 fresh cases, and 351 deaths due to Covid-19. Mumbai recorded 7,381 cases and 58 deaths.
Dr Mangala Gomare, executive health officer, BMC, said it is still early to predict a trend. “We need to wait till this weekend to see if new cases continue to drop this week,” she said, adding that the weekend drop in testing also leads to fewer cases every Monday and Tuesday.
The decline in Mumbai cases, even if slight, comes almost a fortnight after partial lockdown was introduced.
On April 4, the state government introduced a slew of restrictions including shutdown of malls, restaurants, theatres, night curfews, and allowed only construction work, public transport, take-aways from restaurants and deliveries. On April 13, more restrictions were imposed, including weekend lockdowns, closure of all non-essential shops, shutdown of private offices, and only home delivery from restaurants and hotels.
Dr Rahul Pandit, member of the state task force, said it takes 10 days for the lockdown impact to be seen on new cases. Mumbai recorded 53,957 cases between March 28 to April 4, which rose to 67,817 between April 4-11 and dipped to 58,988 between April 11-18.
While Mumbai has shown a decline in weekly new cases, Maharashtra has shown a rise in absolute numbers although its growth rate has slowed. State recorded 2.96 lakh cases between March 28-April 4, which rose to 3.96 lakh between April 4 to April 11 and further rose to 4.32 lakh in April 11-18 week. Its growth rate in same period rose from 10.9 to 13.1 percent and dipped slightly to 12.6 percent last week.
“There may be a slight decrease, but we need to wait until April 25 to see if there is a dip in the number of critical patients to see the lockdown’s impact. Generally it takes a few days for symptoms to surface and 7-8 days before ICU is needed. If cases are reducing, the impact on ICU cases will be seen in the next few days,” Pandit said.
He added that even if the city continues to see a dip, testing must not be reduced. “If overall cases go down, we should increase testing in areas where there are clusters of cases or more cases are found,” he said.
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