Did the UBT–Congress vote split help BJP–Shinde Sena win the BMC polls?

The vote division followed the breakdown of the Sena UBT-Congress alliance for the BMC polls. Uddhav chose to ally with his cousin Raj Thackeray-led MNS, prompting the Congress to contest independently. The Congress subsequently tied up with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). According to voting data, the lack of coordination among Opposition parties translated into seat losses across multiple wards.

In north Mumbai’s Dahisar West ward number 1, Rakha Yadav of the Shinde Sena won by 2,474 votes over Congress candidate Sheetal Mhatre, who polled 5,070 votes. Sena UBT’s Foram Parmar finished third with 4,314 votes, a split that eased Yadav’s victory.

Opposition vote split

A similar pattern was seen in Andheri West ward number 63, where BJP’s Rupesh Savarkar won by a narrow margin of 538 votes, polling 9,193 votes against Sena UBT’s Devendra Amberkar, who secured 8,655 votes. Congress candidate Priyanka Sanap polled 4,380 votes.

In Ghatkopar ward number 129, BJP’s Ashwini Mate won with 9,815 votes, defeating MNS candidate Vijaya Gite, who polled 6,793 votes. Congress candidate Trupti Matele secured 6,467 votes, again splitting the Opposition vote.

Vote division also hurt Congress and VBA candidates. In Ghatkopar East ward number 133, Shinde Sena’s Nirmiti Kande won with 12,295 votes, defeating VBA candidate Supriya Jadhav, who polled 8,656 votes. The MNS candidate secured 4,488 votes.

In Bandra East ward number 96, NCP’s Ayesha Khan won by 2,722 votes over Congress candidate Shaban Zakir. Sena UBT candidate Sana Khan finished close behind with 4,040 votes. In ward number 106, one of the closest contests in the election, BJP’s Prabhakar Shinde won by just 164 votes over MNS candidate Satyavan Dalvi. NOTA emerged as the third highest option with 610 votes, while Congress ally Rashtriya Samaj Party candidate Sanjay Gharat polled 343 votes.

In Mankhurd ward number 135, BJP’s Navnath Ban won by 2,058 votes, with AIMIM and Sena UBT polling 3,520 and 3,518 votes respectively. In Dharavi ward number 188, Shinde Sena’s Bhaskar Shetty defeated AIMIM by 478 votes, while Congress and MNS polled 5,007 and 1,396 votes.

After the results, Sena UBT chief Uddhav Thackeray congratulated the Congress for winning 24 seats. When asked whether the alliance break had hurt his party’s performance, he declined to comment. “Cannot speak on ifs and buts in politics,” he said.

Sources within the Sena UBT said the alliance with the MNS was necessary to consolidate the Marathi vote. “We cannot decide our political moves based on our ally’s demands. We have to play our politics and they are free to do their own,” a party leader said.

Mumbai Congress chief spokesperson Sachin Sawant, however, said the outcome could have been different had the alliance held. “But Uddhavji decided to join hands with Raj Thackeray. It was not possible for us to go with them. We may have suffered more losses had we gone with Thackeray brothers,” he said, adding that the Congress’s decision to contest separately was the right one.